Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, aggregated by services like TimeandDate, project a high temperature of around 24°C (75°F) in Istanbul on May 16, up from 17°C the prior day, driven by a shift to high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies following recent drizzle. This mild warming aligns with Istanbul's Mediterranean climate, where mid-May averages hover at 21°C based on long-term observations from the official Florya station, with sea breezes from the Bosphorus often capping peaks. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) 5-day outlook supports this consensus, though 48-hour updates could adjust for cloud cover or northerly winds. Trader sentiment reflects this stability, with low precipitation risk (20%) and historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Watch MGM briefings tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution via airport measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 16?
25°C or higher 47%
24°C 30%
23°C 16%
22°C 3.0%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
16%
24°C
30%
25°C or higher
52%
25°C or higher 47%
24°C 30%
23°C 16%
22°C 3.0%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$539 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$309 Vol.
1%
19°C
$402 Vol.
1%
20°C
$174 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,033 Vol.
2%
22°C
$574 Vol.
3%
23°C
$327 Vol.
16%
24°C
$173 Vol.
30%
25°C or higher
$138 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, aggregated by services like TimeandDate, project a high temperature of around 24°C (75°F) in Istanbul on May 16, up from 17°C the prior day, driven by a shift to high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies following recent drizzle. This mild warming aligns with Istanbul's Mediterranean climate, where mid-May averages hover at 21°C based on long-term observations from the official Florya station, with sea breezes from the Bosphorus often capping peaks. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) 5-day outlook supports this consensus, though 48-hour updates could adjust for cloud cover or northerly winds. Trader sentiment reflects this stability, with low precipitation risk (20%) and historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Watch MGM briefings tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution via airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$4,920End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, aggregated by services like TimeandDate, project a high temperature of around 24°C (75°F) in Istanbul on May 16, up from 17°C the prior day, driven by a shift to high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies following recent drizzle. This mild warming aligns with Istanbul's Mediterranean climate, where mid-May averages hover at 21°C based on long-term observations from the official Florya station, with sea breezes from the Bosphorus often capping peaks. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) 5-day outlook supports this consensus, though 48-hour updates could adjust for cloud cover or northerly winds. Trader sentiment reflects this stability, with low precipitation risk (20%) and historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Watch MGM briefings tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution via airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,920End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, aggregated by services like TimeandDate, project a high temperature of around 24°C (75°F) in Istanbul on May 16, up from 17°C the prior day, driven by a shift to high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies following recent drizzle. This mild warming aligns with Istanbul's Mediterranean climate, where mid-May averages hover at 21°C based on long-term observations from the official Florya station, with sea breezes from the Bosphorus often capping peaks. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) 5-day outlook supports this consensus, though 48-hour updates could adjust for cloud cover or northerly winds. Trader sentiment reflects this stability, with low precipitation risk (20%) and historical rarity of extremes this early in spring. Watch MGM briefings tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution via airport measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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