Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Istanbul today, backed by converging ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance projecting peak readings of 20-22°C at the official Istanbul Airport station (LTFM). Mild high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea has fostered stable, mostly sunny conditions with light Bosphorus sea breezes moderating warmth, while partial cloud cover following yesterday's cooler front has capped solar heating, aligning precisely with mid-May climatological averages of 21°C daytime highs from long-term NOAA records. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing brief spikes to 22°C or persistent low stratus suppressing below 21°C; traders monitor hourly NOAA observations for final resolution once all data is finalized this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
$59,942 Vol.
$59,942 Vol.
May 15, 2026
21°C
100%
22°C or higher
<1%
$59,942 Vol.
$59,942 Vol.
May 15, 2026
21°C
$8,833 Vol.
100%
22°C or higher
$8,858 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Istanbul today, backed by converging ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance projecting peak readings of 20-22°C at the official Istanbul Airport station (LTFM). Mild high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea has fostered stable, mostly sunny conditions with light Bosphorus sea breezes moderating warmth, while partial cloud cover following yesterday's cooler front has capped solar heating, aligning precisely with mid-May climatological averages of 21°C daytime highs from long-term NOAA records. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing brief spikes to 22°C or persistent low stratus suppressing below 21°C; traders monitor hourly NOAA observations for final resolution once all data is finalized this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$59,942End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Istanbul today, backed by converging ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance projecting peak readings of 20-22°C at the official Istanbul Airport station (LTFM). Mild high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea has fostered stable, mostly sunny conditions with light Bosphorus sea breezes moderating warmth, while partial cloud cover following yesterday's cooler front has capped solar heating, aligning precisely with mid-May climatological averages of 21°C daytime highs from long-term NOAA records. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing brief spikes to 22°C or persistent low stratus suppressing below 21°C; traders monitor hourly NOAA observations for final resolution once all data is finalized this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$59,942End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Istanbul today, backed by converging ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance projecting peak readings of 20-22°C at the official Istanbul Airport station (LTFM). Mild high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea has fostered stable, mostly sunny conditions with light Bosphorus sea breezes moderating warmth, while partial cloud cover following yesterday's cooler front has capped solar heating, aligning precisely with mid-May climatological averages of 21°C daytime highs from long-term NOAA records. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing brief spikes to 22°C or persistent low stratus suppressing below 21°C; traders monitor hourly NOAA observations for final resolution once all data is finalized this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions