Current KMA and global ensemble forecasts for Seoul show overnight lows on May 19 centered in the 13–17 °C range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across those bins. Mid-May spring conditions feature highly variable boundary-layer cooling, with clear skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss while southerly flow or increased cloud cover can limit drops to 15 °C or above. Historical KMA climatology places typical May 19 minima near 12–14 °C, but recent model runs highlight modest spread from differences in wind speed and dew-point advection that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C. The next 48-hour model updates will likely tighten the distribution as the short-range forecast window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 19?
13°C or below 23.0%
15°C 22%
16°C 22%
17°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
13°C or below
23%
14°C
2%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
21%
18°C
10%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
13°C or below 23.0%
15°C 22%
16°C 22%
17°C 16%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
13°C or below
$63 Vol.
23%
14°C
$9 Vol.
2%
15°C
$6 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$28 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$60 Vol.
1%
20°C
$76 Vol.
1%
21°C
$65 Vol.
1%
22°C
$71 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$23 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current KMA and global ensemble forecasts for Seoul show overnight lows on May 19 centered in the 13–17 °C range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across those bins. Mid-May spring conditions feature highly variable boundary-layer cooling, with clear skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss while southerly flow or increased cloud cover can limit drops to 15 °C or above. Historical KMA climatology places typical May 19 minima near 12–14 °C, but recent model runs highlight modest spread from differences in wind speed and dew-point advection that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C. The next 48-hour model updates will likely tighten the distribution as the short-range forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$401End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current KMA and global ensemble forecasts for Seoul show overnight lows on May 19 centered in the 13–17 °C range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across those bins. Mid-May spring conditions feature highly variable boundary-layer cooling, with clear skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss while southerly flow or increased cloud cover can limit drops to 15 °C or above. Historical KMA climatology places typical May 19 minima near 12–14 °C, but recent model runs highlight modest spread from differences in wind speed and dew-point advection that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C. The next 48-hour model updates will likely tighten the distribution as the short-range forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$401End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSICurrent KMA and global ensemble forecasts for Seoul show overnight lows on May 19 centered in the 13–17 °C range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across those bins. Mid-May spring conditions feature highly variable boundary-layer cooling, with clear skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss while southerly flow or increased cloud cover can limit drops to 15 °C or above. Historical KMA climatology places typical May 19 minima near 12–14 °C, but recent model runs highlight modest spread from differences in wind speed and dew-point advection that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C. The next 48-hour model updates will likely tighten the distribution as the short-range forecast window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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