Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble models currently converge on a 14°C nighttime minimum for Seoul on May 16 under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. These conditions favor efficient radiative cooling at the surface, consistent with mid-May climatology where Seoul Central Observatory records show overnight lows clustering between 12°C and 16°C. Market traders have priced the exact 14°C outcome above 99 percent because recent drier air masses have reduced urban heat retention and model runs show minimal spread around this value. A sudden increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger northerly flow could raise the low into the 15°C range, while an unexpected cold-air intrusion remains the primary risk for dipping to 13°C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
14°C 99.6%
13°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$44,256 Vol.
$44,256 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
14°C 99.6%
13°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$44,256 Vol.
$44,256 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$2,406 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$4,033 Vol.
100%
15°C
$17,751 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,301 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,078 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,605 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,915 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,686 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,464 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$4,928 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble models currently converge on a 14°C nighttime minimum for Seoul on May 16 under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. These conditions favor efficient radiative cooling at the surface, consistent with mid-May climatology where Seoul Central Observatory records show overnight lows clustering between 12°C and 16°C. Market traders have priced the exact 14°C outcome above 99 percent because recent drier air masses have reduced urban heat retention and model runs show minimal spread around this value. A sudden increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger northerly flow could raise the low into the 15°C range, while an unexpected cold-air intrusion remains the primary risk for dipping to 13°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$44,256End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble models currently converge on a 14°C nighttime minimum for Seoul on May 16 under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. These conditions favor efficient radiative cooling at the surface, consistent with mid-May climatology where Seoul Central Observatory records show overnight lows clustering between 12°C and 16°C. Market traders have priced the exact 14°C outcome above 99 percent because recent drier air masses have reduced urban heat retention and model runs show minimal spread around this value. A sudden increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger northerly flow could raise the low into the 15°C range, while an unexpected cold-air intrusion remains the primary risk for dipping to 13°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$44,256End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIOfficial forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble models currently converge on a 14°C nighttime minimum for Seoul on May 16 under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. These conditions favor efficient radiative cooling at the surface, consistent with mid-May climatology where Seoul Central Observatory records show overnight lows clustering between 12°C and 16°C. Market traders have priced the exact 14°C outcome above 99 percent because recent drier air masses have reduced urban heat retention and model runs show minimal spread around this value. A sudden increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger northerly flow could raise the low into the 15°C range, while an unexpected cold-air intrusion remains the primary risk for dipping to 13°C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions