Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate an overnight low near 52–56 °F at LaGuardia and Central Park on May 20, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling under a weakening high-pressure ridge. This setup favors the 63 °F-or-below outcome at 48 % implied probability, while warmer marine air advection could push readings into the upper 50s or low 60s. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical lows near 55 °F, providing context for why traders assign meaningful weight to the 82 °F-or-higher bin at 34 % if a stronger southerly flow develops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any shift in the 500 mb pattern, will be the next key catalysts for movement in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 20?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 20?
63°F or below 48%
82°F or higher 34%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 19%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
63°F or below
48%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
7%
82°F or higher
34%
63°F or below 48%
82°F or higher 34%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 19%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
63°F or below
$23 Vol.
48%
64-65°F
$30 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
14%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
15%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
18%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
7%
80-81°F
$30 Vol.
7%
82°F or higher
$23 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate an overnight low near 52–56 °F at LaGuardia and Central Park on May 20, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling under a weakening high-pressure ridge. This setup favors the 63 °F-or-below outcome at 48 % implied probability, while warmer marine air advection could push readings into the upper 50s or low 60s. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical lows near 55 °F, providing context for why traders assign meaningful weight to the 82 °F-or-higher bin at 34 % if a stronger southerly flow develops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any shift in the 500 mb pattern, will be the next key catalysts for movement in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$106End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate an overnight low near 52–56 °F at LaGuardia and Central Park on May 20, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling under a weakening high-pressure ridge. This setup favors the 63 °F-or-below outcome at 48 % implied probability, while warmer marine air advection could push readings into the upper 50s or low 60s. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical lows near 55 °F, providing context for why traders assign meaningful weight to the 82 °F-or-higher bin at 34 % if a stronger southerly flow develops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any shift in the 500 mb pattern, will be the next key catalysts for movement in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$106End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGALatest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate an overnight low near 52–56 °F at LaGuardia and Central Park on May 20, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling under a weakening high-pressure ridge. This setup favors the 63 °F-or-below outcome at 48 % implied probability, while warmer marine air advection could push readings into the upper 50s or low 60s. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical lows near 55 °F, providing context for why traders assign meaningful weight to the 82 °F-or-higher bin at 34 % if a stronger southerly flow develops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any shift in the 500 mb pattern, will be the next key catalysts for movement in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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