Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
72°F or higher 40%
64-65°F 27%
66-67°F 19%
62-63°F 19%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
4%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
27%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
6%
72°F or higher
40%
72°F or higher 40%
64-65°F 27%
66-67°F 19%
62-63°F 19%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
$60 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
4%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
5%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
6%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
7%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
27%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
19%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
6%
72°F or higher
$0 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$60End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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