Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued this morning at 07:00 JST, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C on May 14 under cloudy skies with intermittent sun and 30% afternoon precipitation odds, anchoring trader sentiment where 25°C (28.5%) and 24°C (28.0%) share near-even implied probabilities ahead of resolution at Haneda Airport station. Differentiating factors hinge on boundary layer mixing and insolation variability: fuller sunbreaks could amplify urban heat island effects to nudge peaks toward 26°C (11.5%), while stronger sea breeze from southerly flow or persistent clouds cap warming at 23-24°C, as reflected in ECMWF/GFS ensemble spreads clustering around 24-25°C. Recent days' highs near 25-26°C exceed May's 23.5°C climatological norm under a high-pressure ridge; watch JMA's afternoon update for refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
24°C 34%
25°C 32%
23°C 22%
26°C 15%
NEW
$33,490 Vol.
NEW
$33,490 Vol.
May 14, 2026
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
7%
23°C
22%
24°C
34%
25°C
32%
26°C
15%
27°C or higher
4%
24°C 34%
25°C 32%
23°C 22%
26°C 15%
NEW
$33,490 Vol.
NEW
$33,490 Vol.
May 14, 2026
19°C
$1,433 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$4,639 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,501 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,695 Vol.
7%
23°C
$3,001 Vol.
22%
24°C
$3,115 Vol.
34%
25°C
$2,824 Vol.
32%
26°C
$2,860 Vol.
15%
27°C or higher
$3,499 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued this morning at 07:00 JST, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C on May 14 under cloudy skies with intermittent sun and 30% afternoon precipitation odds, anchoring trader sentiment where 25°C (28.5%) and 24°C (28.0%) share near-even implied probabilities ahead of resolution at Haneda Airport station. Differentiating factors hinge on boundary layer mixing and insolation variability: fuller sunbreaks could amplify urban heat island effects to nudge peaks toward 26°C (11.5%), while stronger sea breeze from southerly flow or persistent clouds cap warming at 23-24°C, as reflected in ECMWF/GFS ensemble spreads clustering around 24-25°C. Recent days' highs near 25-26°C exceed May's 23.5°C climatological norm under a high-pressure ridge; watch JMA's afternoon update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volume
$33,490End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued this morning at 07:00 JST, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C on May 14 under cloudy skies with intermittent sun and 30% afternoon precipitation odds, anchoring trader sentiment where 25°C (28.5%) and 24°C (28.0%) share near-even implied probabilities ahead of resolution at Haneda Airport station. Differentiating factors hinge on boundary layer mixing and insolation variability: fuller sunbreaks could amplify urban heat island effects to nudge peaks toward 26°C (11.5%), while stronger sea breeze from southerly flow or persistent clouds cap warming at 23-24°C, as reflected in ECMWF/GFS ensemble spreads clustering around 24-25°C. Recent days' highs near 25-26°C exceed May's 23.5°C climatological norm under a high-pressure ridge; watch JMA's afternoon update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,490End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued this morning at 07:00 JST, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C on May 14 under cloudy skies with intermittent sun and 30% afternoon precipitation odds, anchoring trader sentiment where 25°C (28.5%) and 24°C (28.0%) share near-even implied probabilities ahead of resolution at Haneda Airport station. Differentiating factors hinge on boundary layer mixing and insolation variability: fuller sunbreaks could amplify urban heat island effects to nudge peaks toward 26°C (11.5%), while stronger sea breeze from southerly flow or persistent clouds cap warming at 23-24°C, as reflected in ECMWF/GFS ensemble spreads clustering around 24-25°C. Recent days' highs near 25-26°C exceed May's 23.5°C climatological norm under a high-pressure ridge; watch JMA's afternoon update for refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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