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icon for Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?

icon for Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

64-65°F 22%

66-67°F 22%

62-63°F 14%

68-69°F 11%

Polymarket
NEW

64-65°F 22%

66-67°F 22%

62-63°F 14%

68-69°F 11%

Polymarket
NEW

55°F or below

$5 Vol.

<1%

56-57°F

$65 Vol.

4%

58-59°F

$0 Vol.

5%

60-61°F

$0 Vol.

6%

62-63°F

$25 Vol.

14%

64-65°F

$22 Vol.

21%

66-67°F

$18 Vol.

27%

68-69°F

$0 Vol.

11%

70-71°F

$0 Vol.

5%

72-73°F

$0 Vol.

5%

74°F or higher

$5 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts project a warm overnight low near or above 74°F in New York City on May 19, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection and light winds that limit radiative cooling, positioning this outcome at 47.5% market-implied probability. Mid-60s bins (64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F at 19.5% each) capture model spread from potential cloud intrusions or subtle frontal timing shifts, while climatological averages hover around 57°F for mid-May at Central Park amid neutral ENSO influences supporting above-normal anomalies. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but updated model runs every 6-12 hours through May 18 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader consensus ahead of official observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$140
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts project a warm overnight low near or above 74°F in New York City on May 19, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection and light winds that limit radiative cooling, positioning this outcome at 47.5% market-implied probability. Mid-60s bins (64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F at 19.5% each) capture model spread from potential cloud intrusions or subtle frontal timing shifts, while climatological averages hover around 57°F for mid-May at Central Park amid neutral ENSO influences supporting above-normal anomalies. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but updated model runs every 6-12 hours through May 18 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader consensus ahead of official observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$140
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "66-67°F" at 27%, followed by "64-65°F" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?" is "66-67°F" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "64-65°F" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 19?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.