Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like those aggregated on Weather.com indicate a high near 29°C for Shenzhen on May 15, with thundershowers and 90%+ precipitation probability capping peak temperatures through extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This follows May 14's observed high exceeding 31°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched implied probabilities for 28–30°C outcomes amid model uncertainty over thunderstorm timing and intensity. Subtropical monsoon influences, combined with Shenzhen's urban heat island effect, heighten variability; early clearing could enable 30°C+, while afternoon downpours favor 28°C. Updated hourly guidance expected later today may sharpen consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 15?
29°C 34%
28°C 29%
30°C or higher 28%
27°C 6%
NEW
$15,831 Vol.
NEW
$15,831 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
29%
29°C
34%
30°C or higher
28%
29°C 34%
28°C 29%
30°C or higher 28%
27°C 6%
NEW
$15,831 Vol.
NEW
$15,831 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$2,465 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,651 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,866 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,959 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$611 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$319 Vol.
1%
26°C
$1,086 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,396 Vol.
6%
28°C
$538 Vol.
29%
29°C
$936 Vol.
34%
30°C or higher
$2,100 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like those aggregated on Weather.com indicate a high near 29°C for Shenzhen on May 15, with thundershowers and 90%+ precipitation probability capping peak temperatures through extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This follows May 14's observed high exceeding 31°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched implied probabilities for 28–30°C outcomes amid model uncertainty over thunderstorm timing and intensity. Subtropical monsoon influences, combined with Shenzhen's urban heat island effect, heighten variability; early clearing could enable 30°C+, while afternoon downpours favor 28°C. Updated hourly guidance expected later today may sharpen consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$15,831End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like those aggregated on Weather.com indicate a high near 29°C for Shenzhen on May 15, with thundershowers and 90%+ precipitation probability capping peak temperatures through extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This follows May 14's observed high exceeding 31°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched implied probabilities for 28–30°C outcomes amid model uncertainty over thunderstorm timing and intensity. Subtropical monsoon influences, combined with Shenzhen's urban heat island effect, heighten variability; early clearing could enable 30°C+, while afternoon downpours favor 28°C. Updated hourly guidance expected later today may sharpen consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,831End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like those aggregated on Weather.com indicate a high near 29°C for Shenzhen on May 15, with thundershowers and 90%+ precipitation probability capping peak temperatures through extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This follows May 14's observed high exceeding 31°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, driving trader sentiment toward closely matched implied probabilities for 28–30°C outcomes amid model uncertainty over thunderstorm timing and intensity. Subtropical monsoon influences, combined with Shenzhen's urban heat island effect, heighten variability; early clearing could enable 30°C+, while afternoon downpours favor 28°C. Updated hourly guidance expected later today may sharpen consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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