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Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?

Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?

May 13

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 13

May 14

May 15

May 16

74°F or higher 47%

72-73°F 30%

70-71°F 21%

68-69°F 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

$23,569 Vol.

74°F or higher 47%

72-73°F 30%

70-71°F 21%

68-69°F 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

$23,569 Vol.

55°F or below

$5,066 Vol.

<1%

56-57°F

$1,344 Vol.

<1%

58-59°F

$1,348 Vol.

<1%

60-61°F

$2,468 Vol.

1%

62-63°F

$3,228 Vol.

<1%

64-65°F

$2,046 Vol.

1%

66-67°F

$2,232 Vol.

1%

68-69°F

$1,408 Vol.

4%

70-71°F

$888 Vol.

21%

72-73°F

$1,453 Vol.

30%

74°F or higher

$2,097 Vol.

47%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare reaching 74°F or higher on May 15, reflecting National Weather Service guidance for sunny skies and highs near 70°F following today's unseasonably cool steady reading around 51°F amid northeast winds. A high-pressure ridge is forecast to dominate, promoting clear conditions, light winds, and efficient daytime heating toward May climatological normals of 70.2°F, with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles clustering outcomes in the low-to-mid 70s after recent runs trended slightly warmer. Uncertainty stems from potential persistent low clouds or lake influence capping peaks at 72-73°F (30%), with the afternoon NWS update expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,569
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare reaching 74°F or higher on May 15, reflecting National Weather Service guidance for sunny skies and highs near 70°F following today's unseasonably cool steady reading around 51°F amid northeast winds. A high-pressure ridge is forecast to dominate, promoting clear conditions, light winds, and efficient daytime heating toward May climatological normals of 70.2°F, with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles clustering outcomes in the low-to-mid 70s after recent runs trended slightly warmer. Uncertainty stems from potential persistent low clouds or lake influence capping peaks at 72-73°F (30%), with the afternoon NWS update expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,569
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "74°F or higher" at 47%, followed by "72-73°F" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?" has generated $23.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?" is "74°F or higher" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "72-73°F" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.