Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 56°F or higher in Chicago on May 16 (99.4% implied probability), backed by strong alignment across National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the mid-70s°F under a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection into the Midwest. This follows a cool early May pattern, with recent 24-hour updates showing departure from lingering low-pressure influences, restoring climatological norms (average May high ~67°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport). Model ensembles indicate low spread, with minimal support for cooler outcomes. Realistic challenges include an unexpected northward surge of a cool front or persistent low clouds capping temperatures below 56°F, though probabilities remain under 1% per current guidance; watch NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
56°F or higher 99.8%
37°F or below <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56°F or higher
100%
56°F or higher 99.8%
37°F or below <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
37°F or below
$966 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$1,240 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$726 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$973 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$1,177 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$926 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$726 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$471 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$782 Vol.
<1%
56°F or higher
$759 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 56°F or higher in Chicago on May 16 (99.4% implied probability), backed by strong alignment across National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the mid-70s°F under a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection into the Midwest. This follows a cool early May pattern, with recent 24-hour updates showing departure from lingering low-pressure influences, restoring climatological norms (average May high ~67°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport). Model ensembles indicate low spread, with minimal support for cooler outcomes. Realistic challenges include an unexpected northward surge of a cool front or persistent low clouds capping temperatures below 56°F, though probabilities remain under 1% per current guidance; watch NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$9,781End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 56°F or higher in Chicago on May 16 (99.4% implied probability), backed by strong alignment across National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the mid-70s°F under a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection into the Midwest. This follows a cool early May pattern, with recent 24-hour updates showing departure from lingering low-pressure influences, restoring climatological norms (average May high ~67°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport). Model ensembles indicate low spread, with minimal support for cooler outcomes. Realistic challenges include an unexpected northward surge of a cool front or persistent low clouds capping temperatures below 56°F, though probabilities remain under 1% per current guidance; watch NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,781End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 56°F or higher in Chicago on May 16 (99.4% implied probability), backed by strong alignment across National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the mid-70s°F under a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection into the Midwest. This follows a cool early May pattern, with recent 24-hour updates showing departure from lingering low-pressure influences, restoring climatological norms (average May high ~67°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport). Model ensembles indicate low spread, with minimal support for cooler outcomes. Realistic challenges include an unexpected northward surge of a cool front or persistent low clouds capping temperatures below 56°F, though probabilities remain under 1% per current guidance; watch NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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