The dispersed probabilities across 18–25°C outcomes for Tokyo’s May 20 minimum temperature reflect substantial uncertainty in 4-day forecast ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models. Springtime variability in the positioning of the subtropical Pacific high and possible weak frontal passages can alter overnight radiative cooling, surface wind speeds, and low-level moisture, producing minimum-temperature spreads of several degrees. Historical May climatology places typical lows near 15–18°C, yet current atmospheric conditions allow for either modest warming advection or enhanced cooling under clearer skies. Model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range by clarifying whether a stable high-pressure regime or transient disturbances will control the overnight low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 20?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 20?
25°C or higher 43%
21°C 25%
19°C 20%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
15°C or below
16%
16°C
7%
17°C
9%
18°C
19%
19°C
20%
20°C
19%
21°C
25%
22°C
16%
23°C
13%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
43%
25°C or higher 43%
21°C 25%
19°C 20%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
15°C or below
$18 Vol.
16%
16°C
$30 Vol.
7%
17°C
$0 Vol.
9%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$0 Vol.
13%
24°C
$24 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$23 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dispersed probabilities across 18–25°C outcomes for Tokyo’s May 20 minimum temperature reflect substantial uncertainty in 4-day forecast ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models. Springtime variability in the positioning of the subtropical Pacific high and possible weak frontal passages can alter overnight radiative cooling, surface wind speeds, and low-level moisture, producing minimum-temperature spreads of several degrees. Historical May climatology places typical lows near 15–18°C, yet current atmospheric conditions allow for either modest warming advection or enhanced cooling under clearer skies. Model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range by clarifying whether a stable high-pressure regime or transient disturbances will control the overnight low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$95End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dispersed probabilities across 18–25°C outcomes for Tokyo’s May 20 minimum temperature reflect substantial uncertainty in 4-day forecast ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models. Springtime variability in the positioning of the subtropical Pacific high and possible weak frontal passages can alter overnight radiative cooling, surface wind speeds, and low-level moisture, producing minimum-temperature spreads of several degrees. Historical May climatology places typical lows near 15–18°C, yet current atmospheric conditions allow for either modest warming advection or enhanced cooling under clearer skies. Model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range by clarifying whether a stable high-pressure regime or transient disturbances will control the overnight low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$95End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThe dispersed probabilities across 18–25°C outcomes for Tokyo’s May 20 minimum temperature reflect substantial uncertainty in 4-day forecast ensembles from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models. Springtime variability in the positioning of the subtropical Pacific high and possible weak frontal passages can alter overnight radiative cooling, surface wind speeds, and low-level moisture, producing minimum-temperature spreads of several degrees. Historical May climatology places typical lows near 15–18°C, yet current atmospheric conditions allow for either modest warming advection or enhanced cooling under clearer skies. Model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range by clarifying whether a stable high-pressure regime or transient disturbances will control the overnight low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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