Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration forecasts, with May 15 highs pegged at 27°C under mostly cloudy skies and 20% rain chance, extending near-normal conditions into May 16-22 per the latest one-week outlook. This clusters implied probabilities around 27-29°C, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 28°C for Taipei, where daily highs typically range 27-30°C amid rising humidity and sea breeze influences. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—persistent overcast could cap peaks at 27°C via reduced solar insolation, while partial clearing and urban heat island effects might push to 29°C. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS show 1-2°C divergence; watch CWA's May 15 update for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on May 16?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 16?
29°C 26%
28°C 25%
27°C 16%
31°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
8%
27°C
16%
28°C
25%
29°C
26%
30°C
14%
31°C or higher
15%
29°C 26%
28°C 25%
27°C 16%
31°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
21°C or below
$1,251 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$487 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$356 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$233 Vol.
1%
25°C
$179 Vol.
3%
26°C
$226 Vol.
8%
27°C
$301 Vol.
16%
28°C
$405 Vol.
25%
29°C
$155 Vol.
26%
30°C
$227 Vol.
14%
31°C or higher
$724 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration forecasts, with May 15 highs pegged at 27°C under mostly cloudy skies and 20% rain chance, extending near-normal conditions into May 16-22 per the latest one-week outlook. This clusters implied probabilities around 27-29°C, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 28°C for Taipei, where daily highs typically range 27-30°C amid rising humidity and sea breeze influences. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—persistent overcast could cap peaks at 27°C via reduced solar insolation, while partial clearing and urban heat island effects might push to 29°C. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS show 1-2°C divergence; watch CWA's May 15 update for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$4,540End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration forecasts, with May 15 highs pegged at 27°C under mostly cloudy skies and 20% rain chance, extending near-normal conditions into May 16-22 per the latest one-week outlook. This clusters implied probabilities around 27-29°C, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 28°C for Taipei, where daily highs typically range 27-30°C amid rising humidity and sea breeze influences. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—persistent overcast could cap peaks at 27°C via reduced solar insolation, while partial clearing and urban heat island effects might push to 29°C. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS show 1-2°C divergence; watch CWA's May 15 update for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,540End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Central Weather Administration forecasts, with May 15 highs pegged at 27°C under mostly cloudy skies and 20% rain chance, extending near-normal conditions into May 16-22 per the latest one-week outlook. This clusters implied probabilities around 27-29°C, aligning with mid-May climatological averages of 28°C for Taipei, where daily highs typically range 27-30°C amid rising humidity and sea breeze influences. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—persistent overcast could cap peaks at 27°C via reduced solar insolation, while partial clearing and urban heat island effects might push to 29°C. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS show 1-2°C divergence; watch CWA's May 15 update for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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