Recent ensemble forecasts from models including the GFS and ECMWF point to a mild overnight low in Seoul on May 20 near 15–17°C, driven by springtime southerly flow, limited cloud cover, and the absence of strong cold-air advection ahead of a weak frontal system. Historical mid-May climatology places average lows around 11–13°C, yet current surface observations and 500-hPa heights remain above normal, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14°C and 18°C. Minor differences among outcomes hinge on precise timing of any light precipitation and boundary-layer mixing overnight, with new model runs expected to refine these variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 20?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 20?
16°C 24%
17°C 24%
18°C 19%
15°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
12°C or below
5%
13°C
5%
14°C
14%
15°C
20%
16°C
23%
17°C
26%
18°C
19%
19°C
6%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C or higher
3%
16°C 24%
17°C 24%
18°C 19%
15°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
12°C or below
$15 Vol.
5%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$39 Vol.
14%
15°C
$6 Vol.
20%
16°C
$12 Vol.
23%
17°C
$8 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$30 Vol.
5%
21°C
$30 Vol.
5%
22°C or higher
$58 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including the GFS and ECMWF point to a mild overnight low in Seoul on May 20 near 15–17°C, driven by springtime southerly flow, limited cloud cover, and the absence of strong cold-air advection ahead of a weak frontal system. Historical mid-May climatology places average lows around 11–13°C, yet current surface observations and 500-hPa heights remain above normal, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14°C and 18°C. Minor differences among outcomes hinge on precise timing of any light precipitation and boundary-layer mixing overnight, with new model runs expected to refine these variables before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$198End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including the GFS and ECMWF point to a mild overnight low in Seoul on May 20 near 15–17°C, driven by springtime southerly flow, limited cloud cover, and the absence of strong cold-air advection ahead of a weak frontal system. Historical mid-May climatology places average lows around 11–13°C, yet current surface observations and 500-hPa heights remain above normal, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14°C and 18°C. Minor differences among outcomes hinge on precise timing of any light precipitation and boundary-layer mixing overnight, with new model runs expected to refine these variables before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$198End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent ensemble forecasts from models including the GFS and ECMWF point to a mild overnight low in Seoul on May 20 near 15–17°C, driven by springtime southerly flow, limited cloud cover, and the absence of strong cold-air advection ahead of a weak frontal system. Historical mid-May climatology places average lows around 11–13°C, yet current surface observations and 500-hPa heights remain above normal, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14°C and 18°C. Minor differences among outcomes hinge on precise timing of any light precipitation and boundary-layer mixing overnight, with new model runs expected to refine these variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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