National Weather Service guidance forecasts a high near 89°F at Miami International Airport on May 16 under light southeast winds and a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering mostly sunny skies, anchoring trader consensus at 88-89°F (43.5% implied probability) ahead of 90-91°F (34.5%). This reflects recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering in the upper 80s, following a week of above-normal temperatures—including low-90s highs amid an early-May heatwave—but tempered by climatological May averages around 87°F. Key uncertainty stems from sea breeze timing and a 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms; earlier onshore flow or inland cloud development favors 88-89°F, while delays could enable 90+. New observational data and evening forecast updates may refine odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on May 16?
Highest temperature in Miami on May 16?
88-89°F 45%
90-91°F 36%
86-87°F 16%
92-93°F 4.7%
NEW
$17,537 Vol.
NEW
$17,537 Vol.
May 16, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
45%
90-91°F
36%
92-93°F
5%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 45%
90-91°F 36%
86-87°F 16%
92-93°F 4.7%
NEW
$17,537 Vol.
NEW
$17,537 Vol.
May 16, 2026
79°F or below
$840 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,099 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$2,598 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$2,380 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$2,303 Vol.
16%
88-89°F
$2,000 Vol.
45%
90-91°F
$1,890 Vol.
36%
92-93°F
$1,837 Vol.
5%
94-95°F
$647 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$453 Vol.
1%
98°F or higher
$1,489 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance forecasts a high near 89°F at Miami International Airport on May 16 under light southeast winds and a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering mostly sunny skies, anchoring trader consensus at 88-89°F (43.5% implied probability) ahead of 90-91°F (34.5%). This reflects recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering in the upper 80s, following a week of above-normal temperatures—including low-90s highs amid an early-May heatwave—but tempered by climatological May averages around 87°F. Key uncertainty stems from sea breeze timing and a 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms; earlier onshore flow or inland cloud development favors 88-89°F, while delays could enable 90+. New observational data and evening forecast updates may refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$17,537End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance forecasts a high near 89°F at Miami International Airport on May 16 under light southeast winds and a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering mostly sunny skies, anchoring trader consensus at 88-89°F (43.5% implied probability) ahead of 90-91°F (34.5%). This reflects recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering in the upper 80s, following a week of above-normal temperatures—including low-90s highs amid an early-May heatwave—but tempered by climatological May averages around 87°F. Key uncertainty stems from sea breeze timing and a 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms; earlier onshore flow or inland cloud development favors 88-89°F, while delays could enable 90+. New observational data and evening forecast updates may refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,537End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance forecasts a high near 89°F at Miami International Airport on May 16 under light southeast winds and a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering mostly sunny skies, anchoring trader consensus at 88-89°F (43.5% implied probability) ahead of 90-91°F (34.5%). This reflects recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering in the upper 80s, following a week of above-normal temperatures—including low-90s highs amid an early-May heatwave—but tempered by climatological May averages around 87°F. Key uncertainty stems from sea breeze timing and a 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms; earlier onshore flow or inland cloud development favors 88-89°F, while delays could enable 90+. New observational data and evening forecast updates may refine odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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