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Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?

icon for Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?

Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 14

May 15

May 16

21°C 33%

20°C 32%

19°C 19%

22°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

21°C 33%

20°C 32%

19°C 19%

22°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

15°C or below

$1,818 Vol.

<1%

16°C

$49 Vol.

<1%

17°C

$732 Vol.

1%

18°C

$484 Vol.

6%

19°C

$434 Vol.

19%

20°C

$274 Vol.

32%

21°C

$274 Vol.

33%

22°C

$113 Vol.

9%

23°C

$89 Vol.

4%

24°C

$92 Vol.

1%

25°C or higher

$276 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast indicates a high of 18°C for Madrid on May 16 amid a cooler-than-normal pattern for central Spain during May 11-17, driven by persistent northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and minimal cloud cover allowing radiative cooling overnight to 6°C. Yet trader consensus prices 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (31.0%) as frontrunners, reflecting spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some runs project afternoon heating to 20-22°C via boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects—against a mid-May climatological average of 22°C. Key differentiators include northerly wind gusts above 15 km/h capping highs at 19°C versus lighter flows enabling 21°C peaks; new model runs from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS (four times daily) through May 15 will refine probabilities as resolution approaches.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,631
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast indicates a high of 18°C for Madrid on May 16 amid a cooler-than-normal pattern for central Spain during May 11-17, driven by persistent northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and minimal cloud cover allowing radiative cooling overnight to 6°C. Yet trader consensus prices 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (31.0%) as frontrunners, reflecting spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some runs project afternoon heating to 20-22°C via boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects—against a mid-May climatological average of 22°C. Key differentiators include northerly wind gusts above 15 km/h capping highs at 19°C versus lighter flows enabling 21°C peaks; new model runs from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS (four times daily) through May 15 will refine probabilities as resolution approaches.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,631
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "21°C" at 33%, followed by "20°C" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?" is "21°C" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20°C" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.