Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a daily maximum near 27°C on May 17, driven by a persistent southerly airstream that transports warm, moist air from the South China Sea. This flow, typical of the spring-to-summer transition, supports surface heating under partly cloudy skies while scattered showers—triggered by daytime instability—could cap temperatures slightly below model peaks. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in peak values because small shifts in cloud timing or rainfall onset alter the diurnal temperature range by 1–2°C. Historical May climatology places the long-term average high near 28°C, so current model consensus aligns with near-normal conditions yet leaves room for localized variability that keeps 26°C and 28°C outcomes closely competitive among traders.