Latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration place Chengdu’s May 18 maximum temperature in the 28–31 °C range, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 29–32 °C outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and seasonal warming of the Sichuan Basin support daytime heating, while variable low-level moisture and possible afternoon cloud cover or showers introduce the small uncertainties that differentiate these closely priced bins. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 28 °C with standard deviations of 2–3 °C, placing the current trader consensus squarely within expected variability. Updated short-range model runs and official CMA surface observations over the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 18?
31°C 26%
32°C 17%
30°C 16%
29°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
11%
29°C
14%
30°C
16%
31°C
26%
32°C
17%
33°C
10%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 26%
32°C 17%
30°C 16%
29°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
26°C or below
$289 Vol.
1%
27°C
$110 Vol.
4%
28°C
$47 Vol.
11%
29°C
$92 Vol.
14%
30°C
$109 Vol.
16%
31°C
$117 Vol.
26%
32°C
$228 Vol.
17%
33°C
$164 Vol.
10%
34°C
$266 Vol.
4%
35°C
$166 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$686 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration place Chengdu’s May 18 maximum temperature in the 28–31 °C range, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 29–32 °C outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and seasonal warming of the Sichuan Basin support daytime heating, while variable low-level moisture and possible afternoon cloud cover or showers introduce the small uncertainties that differentiate these closely priced bins. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 28 °C with standard deviations of 2–3 °C, placing the current trader consensus squarely within expected variability. Updated short-range model runs and official CMA surface observations over the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,274End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration place Chengdu’s May 18 maximum temperature in the 28–31 °C range, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 29–32 °C outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and seasonal warming of the Sichuan Basin support daytime heating, while variable low-level moisture and possible afternoon cloud cover or showers introduce the small uncertainties that differentiate these closely priced bins. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 28 °C with standard deviations of 2–3 °C, placing the current trader consensus squarely within expected variability. Updated short-range model runs and official CMA surface observations over the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,274End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUULatest forecast ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration place Chengdu’s May 18 maximum temperature in the 28–31 °C range, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 29–32 °C outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and seasonal warming of the Sichuan Basin support daytime heating, while variable low-level moisture and possible afternoon cloud cover or showers introduce the small uncertainties that differentiate these closely priced bins. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 28 °C with standard deviations of 2–3 °C, placing the current trader consensus squarely within expected variability. Updated short-range model runs and official CMA surface observations over the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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