Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System have converged on a daily maximum of 26–27 °C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Under stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May subtropical flow over eastern China, light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit afternoon heating while allowing modest warming above seasonal averages near 25 °C. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any onshore breeze introduces the small probability mass at 28 °C and below 26 °C. Final high-resolution runs and official station observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 18?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 18?
27°C 33%
26°C 26%
28°C 18%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
10%
26°C
26%
27°C
33%
28°C
18%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 33%
26°C 26%
28°C 18%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$869 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$361 Vol.
1%
23°C
$661 Vol.
1%
24°C
$699 Vol.
4%
25°C
$909 Vol.
10%
26°C
$460 Vol.
26%
27°C
$184 Vol.
33%
28°C
$264 Vol.
18%
29°C
$290 Vol.
7%
30°C
$163 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$522 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System have converged on a daily maximum of 26–27 °C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Under stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May subtropical flow over eastern China, light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit afternoon heating while allowing modest warming above seasonal averages near 25 °C. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any onshore breeze introduces the small probability mass at 28 °C and below 26 °C. Final high-resolution runs and official station observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,382End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System have converged on a daily maximum of 26–27 °C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Under stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May subtropical flow over eastern China, light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit afternoon heating while allowing modest warming above seasonal averages near 25 °C. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any onshore breeze introduces the small probability mass at 28 °C and below 26 °C. Final high-resolution runs and official station observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,382End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System have converged on a daily maximum of 26–27 °C for Shanghai on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Under stable high-pressure influence and typical mid-May subtropical flow over eastern China, light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit afternoon heating while allowing modest warming above seasonal averages near 25 °C. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any onshore breeze introduces the small probability mass at 28 °C and below 26 °C. Final high-resolution runs and official station observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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