Recent global model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles points to a Beijing surface maximum of 26–28 °C on May 18, driven by moderate southerly advection beneath a weakening subtropical ridge. This pattern favors gradual daytime warming from current mid-May baselines near 25 °C, offset by scattered afternoon cloud development and variable boundary-layer mixing that caps further intensification. Ensemble probability density remains concentrated between 25 °C and 28 °C, producing the observed market clustering around those outcomes, while historical mid-May climatology shows typical daily highs of 26–27 °C with occasional excursions to 29 °C or 24 °C depending on frontal timing. Updated model runs released within the next 24–36 hours will further refine the exact peak and associated resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
26°C 31%
27°C 24%
25°C 20%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
10%
25°C
20%
26°C
31%
27°C
24%
28°C
15%
29°C
8%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
26°C 31%
27°C 24%
25°C 20%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$526 Vol.
1%
23°C
$262 Vol.
3%
24°C
$222 Vol.
10%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$141 Vol.
31%
27°C
$84 Vol.
24%
28°C
$27 Vol.
15%
29°C
$105 Vol.
8%
30°C
$61 Vol.
2%
31°C
$139 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$430 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent global model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles points to a Beijing surface maximum of 26–28 °C on May 18, driven by moderate southerly advection beneath a weakening subtropical ridge. This pattern favors gradual daytime warming from current mid-May baselines near 25 °C, offset by scattered afternoon cloud development and variable boundary-layer mixing that caps further intensification. Ensemble probability density remains concentrated between 25 °C and 28 °C, producing the observed market clustering around those outcomes, while historical mid-May climatology shows typical daily highs of 26–27 °C with occasional excursions to 29 °C or 24 °C depending on frontal timing. Updated model runs released within the next 24–36 hours will further refine the exact peak and associated resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,987End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent global model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles points to a Beijing surface maximum of 26–28 °C on May 18, driven by moderate southerly advection beneath a weakening subtropical ridge. This pattern favors gradual daytime warming from current mid-May baselines near 25 °C, offset by scattered afternoon cloud development and variable boundary-layer mixing that caps further intensification. Ensemble probability density remains concentrated between 25 °C and 28 °C, producing the observed market clustering around those outcomes, while historical mid-May climatology shows typical daily highs of 26–27 °C with occasional excursions to 29 °C or 24 °C depending on frontal timing. Updated model runs released within the next 24–36 hours will further refine the exact peak and associated resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,987End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAARecent global model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS ensembles points to a Beijing surface maximum of 26–28 °C on May 18, driven by moderate southerly advection beneath a weakening subtropical ridge. This pattern favors gradual daytime warming from current mid-May baselines near 25 °C, offset by scattered afternoon cloud development and variable boundary-layer mixing that caps further intensification. Ensemble probability density remains concentrated between 25 °C and 28 °C, producing the observed market clustering around those outcomes, while historical mid-May climatology shows typical daily highs of 26–27 °C with occasional excursions to 29 °C or 24 °C depending on frontal timing. Updated model runs released within the next 24–36 hours will further refine the exact peak and associated resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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