Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) project Beijing's May 17 highest temperature near 20–23°C, with trader consensus mirroring this tight spread amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds, light rain, and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. Over the past 48 hours, temperatures have cooled from mid-30s peaks earlier in the week as a trough deepens over northern China, overriding May's climatological average high of ~27°C. Key differentiators include frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 22–23°C, while prolonged overcast pushes toward 17–19°C—and surface wind shear mixing cooler boundary layer air. New 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 17?
20°C 29%
21°C 26%
19°C 23%
18°C 10.8%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
5%
18°C
11%
19°C
23%
20°C
29%
21°C
26%
22°C
7%
23°C or higher
5%
20°C 29%
21°C 26%
19°C 23%
18°C 10.8%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$490 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$310 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$315 Vol.
1%
16°C
$177 Vol.
1%
17°C
$126 Vol.
5%
18°C
$258 Vol.
11%
19°C
$102 Vol.
23%
20°C
$157 Vol.
29%
21°C
$240 Vol.
26%
22°C
$461 Vol.
7%
23°C or higher
$653 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) project Beijing's May 17 highest temperature near 20–23°C, with trader consensus mirroring this tight spread amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds, light rain, and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. Over the past 48 hours, temperatures have cooled from mid-30s peaks earlier in the week as a trough deepens over northern China, overriding May's climatological average high of ~27°C. Key differentiators include frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 22–23°C, while prolonged overcast pushes toward 17–19°C—and surface wind shear mixing cooler boundary layer air. New 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,289End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) project Beijing's May 17 highest temperature near 20–23°C, with trader consensus mirroring this tight spread amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds, light rain, and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. Over the past 48 hours, temperatures have cooled from mid-30s peaks earlier in the week as a trough deepens over northern China, overriding May's climatological average high of ~27°C. Key differentiators include frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 22–23°C, while prolonged overcast pushes toward 17–19°C—and surface wind shear mixing cooler boundary layer air. New 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,289End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAALatest China Meteorological Administration and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) project Beijing's May 17 highest temperature near 20–23°C, with trader consensus mirroring this tight spread amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds, light rain, and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. Over the past 48 hours, temperatures have cooled from mid-30s peaks earlier in the week as a trough deepens over northern China, overriding May's climatological average high of ~27°C. Key differentiators include frontal timing—earlier clearing favors 22–23°C, while prolonged overcast pushes toward 17–19°C—and surface wind shear mixing cooler boundary layer air. New 12Z model runs expected today could sharpen these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions