KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station, show late-afternoon temperatures at 10.6°C as of 16:20 LT on May 15, with northwest winds at force 4 and dry conditions following light showers, capping daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model ensembles forecasting subdued peaks in a cool maritime air mass, diverging from May climatological norms of 16°C due to North Sea advection limiting insolation. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 11°C reflects the day's trajectory—early readings near 7–10°C with no surge observed—nearing resolution. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting late peaks to 12°C, though low solar angles and 80% shower risk per KNMI guidance render this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 15?
11°C 99.9%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$49,263 Vol.
$49,263 Vol.
May 15, 2026
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99.9%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$49,263 Vol.
$49,263 Vol.
May 15, 2026
11°C
$9,391 Vol.
100%
12°C
$7,837 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$7,086 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,252 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$2,264 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station, show late-afternoon temperatures at 10.6°C as of 16:20 LT on May 15, with northwest winds at force 4 and dry conditions following light showers, capping daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model ensembles forecasting subdued peaks in a cool maritime air mass, diverging from May climatological norms of 16°C due to North Sea advection limiting insolation. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 11°C reflects the day's trajectory—early readings near 7–10°C with no surge observed—nearing resolution. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting late peaks to 12°C, though low solar angles and 80% shower risk per KNMI guidance render this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volume
$49,263End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station, show late-afternoon temperatures at 10.6°C as of 16:20 LT on May 15, with northwest winds at force 4 and dry conditions following light showers, capping daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model ensembles forecasting subdued peaks in a cool maritime air mass, diverging from May climatological norms of 16°C due to North Sea advection limiting insolation. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 11°C reflects the day's trajectory—early readings near 7–10°C with no surge observed—nearing resolution. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting late peaks to 12°C, though low solar angles and 80% shower risk per KNMI guidance render this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,263End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station, show late-afternoon temperatures at 10.6°C as of 16:20 LT on May 15, with northwest winds at force 4 and dry conditions following light showers, capping daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model ensembles forecasting subdued peaks in a cool maritime air mass, diverging from May climatological norms of 16°C due to North Sea advection limiting insolation. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 11°C reflects the day's trajectory—early readings near 7–10°C with no surge observed—nearing resolution. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting late peaks to 12°C, though low solar angles and 80% shower risk per KNMI guidance render this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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