Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project a daily maximum of 20–22 °C at the primary Istanbul Airport station on May 18 under mild high-pressure ridging across the Marmara region. This consensus underpins the market’s near-even split between 20 °C and 21 °C outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports peaks near 21 °C, tempered by Black Sea and Marmara sea breezes that limit afternoon heating and by variable cloud cover capable of trimming or boosting readings by 1–2 °C. Recent passage of a weak frontal system has stabilized conditions, reducing the chance of larger deviations. The narrow spread in probabilities reflects trader recognition that modest shifts in insolation or boundary-layer wind direction could readily separate a 19 °C cap from a 22 °C peak, with the next model cycle expected to sharpen the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
20°C 27%
21°C 26%
22°C 17%
19°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
15%
20°C
27%
21°C
31%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
5%
20°C 27%
21°C 26%
22°C 17%
19°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$397 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$456 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$318 Vol.
1%
16°C
$469 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,209 Vol.
2%
18°C
$323 Vol.
10%
19°C
$366 Vol.
15%
20°C
$24 Vol.
27%
21°C
$76 Vol.
31%
22°C
$160 Vol.
17%
23°C or higher
$207 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project a daily maximum of 20–22 °C at the primary Istanbul Airport station on May 18 under mild high-pressure ridging across the Marmara region. This consensus underpins the market’s near-even split between 20 °C and 21 °C outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports peaks near 21 °C, tempered by Black Sea and Marmara sea breezes that limit afternoon heating and by variable cloud cover capable of trimming or boosting readings by 1–2 °C. Recent passage of a weak frontal system has stabilized conditions, reducing the chance of larger deviations. The narrow spread in probabilities reflects trader recognition that modest shifts in insolation or boundary-layer wind direction could readily separate a 19 °C cap from a 22 °C peak, with the next model cycle expected to sharpen the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$4,006End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project a daily maximum of 20–22 °C at the primary Istanbul Airport station on May 18 under mild high-pressure ridging across the Marmara region. This consensus underpins the market’s near-even split between 20 °C and 21 °C outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports peaks near 21 °C, tempered by Black Sea and Marmara sea breezes that limit afternoon heating and by variable cloud cover capable of trimming or boosting readings by 1–2 °C. Recent passage of a weak frontal system has stabilized conditions, reducing the chance of larger deviations. The narrow spread in probabilities reflects trader recognition that modest shifts in insolation or boundary-layer wind direction could readily separate a 19 °C cap from a 22 °C peak, with the next model cycle expected to sharpen the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,006End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project a daily maximum of 20–22 °C at the primary Istanbul Airport station on May 18 under mild high-pressure ridging across the Marmara region. This consensus underpins the market’s near-even split between 20 °C and 21 °C outcomes. Mid-May climatology supports peaks near 21 °C, tempered by Black Sea and Marmara sea breezes that limit afternoon heating and by variable cloud cover capable of trimming or boosting readings by 1–2 °C. Recent passage of a weak frontal system has stabilized conditions, reducing the chance of larger deviations. The narrow spread in probabilities reflects trader recognition that modest shifts in insolation or boundary-layer wind direction could readily separate a 19 °C cap from a 22 °C peak, with the next model cycle expected to sharpen the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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