Latest forecast models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS point to a daytime high of 28–29°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A strengthening Mediterranean sea breeze and gradual erosion of the prior high-pressure ridge are expected to cap further warming, while clear skies and light winds support modest afternoon heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 26–27°C but recent northerly flows have introduced slight cooling. Traders are watching the next model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or humidity that could push the peak to 30°C or hold it at 28°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
29°C 26%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 18%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
7%
28°C
21%
29°C
26%
30°C
22%
31°C
18%
32°C or higher
5%
29°C 26%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 18%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$779 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$425 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$164 Vol.
1%
25°C
$61 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$129 Vol.
2%
27°C
$37 Vol.
7%
28°C
$128 Vol.
21%
29°C
$123 Vol.
26%
30°C
$177 Vol.
22%
31°C
$108 Vol.
18%
32°C or higher
$258 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS point to a daytime high of 28–29°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A strengthening Mediterranean sea breeze and gradual erosion of the prior high-pressure ridge are expected to cap further warming, while clear skies and light winds support modest afternoon heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 26–27°C but recent northerly flows have introduced slight cooling. Traders are watching the next model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or humidity that could push the peak to 30°C or hold it at 28°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,242End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS point to a daytime high of 28–29°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A strengthening Mediterranean sea breeze and gradual erosion of the prior high-pressure ridge are expected to cap further warming, while clear skies and light winds support modest afternoon heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 26–27°C but recent northerly flows have introduced slight cooling. Traders are watching the next model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or humidity that could push the peak to 30°C or hold it at 28°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,242End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETLatest forecast models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS point to a daytime high of 28–29°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A strengthening Mediterranean sea breeze and gradual erosion of the prior high-pressure ridge are expected to cap further warming, while clear skies and light winds support modest afternoon heating. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 26–27°C but recent northerly flows have introduced slight cooling. Traders are watching the next model runs for any shifts in steering patterns or humidity that could push the peak to 30°C or hold it at 28°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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