Persistent Sharav conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, driven by strong easterly winds advecting hot, dry continental air from the desert interior, represent the primary catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a 35°C or higher daily maximum in Tel Aviv on May 17 above 80%. Recent runs from the Israel Meteorological Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show clear skies and minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday, enabling rapid surface heating and sustained high temperatures well above the typical May coastal average of 26–28°C. These atmospheric dynamics, including low humidity and strong downslope flow, align with historical analogs of early-season heat events and have kept trader consensus firmly on the highest temperature bracket ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
35°C or higher 85%
34°C 10%
33°C 1.0%
31°C <1%
NEW
$12,652 Vol.
NEW
$12,652 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
10%
35°C or higher
85%
35°C or higher 85%
34°C 10%
33°C 1.0%
31°C <1%
NEW
$12,652 Vol.
NEW
$12,652 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
$2,101 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$690 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,046 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$821 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$610 Vol.
1%
32°C
$1,145 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,107 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,163 Vol.
10%
35°C or higher
$1,903 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent Sharav conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, driven by strong easterly winds advecting hot, dry continental air from the desert interior, represent the primary catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a 35°C or higher daily maximum in Tel Aviv on May 17 above 80%. Recent runs from the Israel Meteorological Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show clear skies and minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday, enabling rapid surface heating and sustained high temperatures well above the typical May coastal average of 26–28°C. These atmospheric dynamics, including low humidity and strong downslope flow, align with historical analogs of early-season heat events and have kept trader consensus firmly on the highest temperature bracket ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$12,652End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent Sharav conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, driven by strong easterly winds advecting hot, dry continental air from the desert interior, represent the primary catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a 35°C or higher daily maximum in Tel Aviv on May 17 above 80%. Recent runs from the Israel Meteorological Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show clear skies and minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday, enabling rapid surface heating and sustained high temperatures well above the typical May coastal average of 26–28°C. These atmospheric dynamics, including low humidity and strong downslope flow, align with historical analogs of early-season heat events and have kept trader consensus firmly on the highest temperature bracket ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,652End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETPersistent Sharav conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, driven by strong easterly winds advecting hot, dry continental air from the desert interior, represent the primary catalyst pushing the market-implied probability for a 35°C or higher daily maximum in Tel Aviv on May 17 above 80%. Recent runs from the Israel Meteorological Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show clear skies and minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday, enabling rapid surface heating and sustained high temperatures well above the typical May coastal average of 26–28°C. These atmospheric dynamics, including low humidity and strong downslope flow, align with historical analogs of early-season heat events and have kept trader consensus firmly on the highest temperature bracket ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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