Trader consensus for a 26°C or higher maximum in Mexico City on May 17 reflects current Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and AccuWeather forecasts projecting 27–29°C under mostly sunny skies and high-pressure dominance. These align with May climatology at Benito Juárez International Airport, where average highs reach 26°C and daily peaks below 23°C are uncommon. Recent observations from May 14–15 recorded 26–29°C, supporting the market-implied 94.3% probability for the leading outcome. Key variables include potential afternoon convection, with some models indicating isolated showers that could briefly limit solar heating, though consensus deems widespread cloud cover unlikely. Final hourly temperature readings will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 17?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 17?
26°C or higher 94.6%
25°C 2.9%
24°C 1.6%
23°C <1%
NEW
$14,032 Vol.
NEW
$14,032 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
95%
26°C or higher 94.6%
25°C 2.9%
24°C 1.6%
23°C <1%
NEW
$14,032 Vol.
NEW
$14,032 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
$1,256 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,148 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,934 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,159 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$827 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,133 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$993 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$547 Vol.
1%
24°C
$702 Vol.
2%
25°C
$899 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$674 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus for a 26°C or higher maximum in Mexico City on May 17 reflects current Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and AccuWeather forecasts projecting 27–29°C under mostly sunny skies and high-pressure dominance. These align with May climatology at Benito Juárez International Airport, where average highs reach 26°C and daily peaks below 23°C are uncommon. Recent observations from May 14–15 recorded 26–29°C, supporting the market-implied 94.3% probability for the leading outcome. Key variables include potential afternoon convection, with some models indicating isolated showers that could briefly limit solar heating, though consensus deems widespread cloud cover unlikely. Final hourly temperature readings will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$14,032End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus for a 26°C or higher maximum in Mexico City on May 17 reflects current Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and AccuWeather forecasts projecting 27–29°C under mostly sunny skies and high-pressure dominance. These align with May climatology at Benito Juárez International Airport, where average highs reach 26°C and daily peaks below 23°C are uncommon. Recent observations from May 14–15 recorded 26–29°C, supporting the market-implied 94.3% probability for the leading outcome. Key variables include potential afternoon convection, with some models indicating isolated showers that could briefly limit solar heating, though consensus deems widespread cloud cover unlikely. Final hourly temperature readings will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,032End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXTrader consensus for a 26°C or higher maximum in Mexico City on May 17 reflects current Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and AccuWeather forecasts projecting 27–29°C under mostly sunny skies and high-pressure dominance. These align with May climatology at Benito Juárez International Airport, where average highs reach 26°C and daily peaks below 23°C are uncommon. Recent observations from May 14–15 recorded 26–29°C, supporting the market-implied 94.3% probability for the leading outcome. Key variables include potential afternoon convection, with some models indicating isolated showers that could briefly limit solar heating, though consensus deems widespread cloud cover unlikely. Final hourly temperature readings will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions