Recent ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and supporting global models such as GFS project daytime highs of 26–29 °C in Mexico City on May 18, establishing the dominant market positioning for 27 °C or higher. These outlooks align with the city’s May climatology at 2,240 m elevation, where strong solar insolation during the dry season routinely produces maximum temperatures near 26 °C, with historical observations from Benito Juárez International Airport rarely falling below 24 °C. Minimal expected cloud cover and stable upper-level ridging reinforce diurnal heating, though modest afternoon convection or slight wind shifts remain the chief variables that could cap readings near 26 °C. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings scheduled for the next 48 hours will refine the final resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 18?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 18?
27°C or higher 83%
26°C 9%
25°C 7%
24°C 1.4%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
9%
27°C or higher
83%
27°C or higher 83%
26°C 9%
25°C 7%
24°C 1.4%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
17°C or below
$1,646 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$4,560 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$528 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$425 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$272 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$433 Vol.
1%
23°C
$542 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$440 Vol.
1%
25°C
$271 Vol.
7%
26°C
$259 Vol.
9%
27°C or higher
$160 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and supporting global models such as GFS project daytime highs of 26–29 °C in Mexico City on May 18, establishing the dominant market positioning for 27 °C or higher. These outlooks align with the city’s May climatology at 2,240 m elevation, where strong solar insolation during the dry season routinely produces maximum temperatures near 26 °C, with historical observations from Benito Juárez International Airport rarely falling below 24 °C. Minimal expected cloud cover and stable upper-level ridging reinforce diurnal heating, though modest afternoon convection or slight wind shifts remain the chief variables that could cap readings near 26 °C. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings scheduled for the next 48 hours will refine the final resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$9,536End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and supporting global models such as GFS project daytime highs of 26–29 °C in Mexico City on May 18, establishing the dominant market positioning for 27 °C or higher. These outlooks align with the city’s May climatology at 2,240 m elevation, where strong solar insolation during the dry season routinely produces maximum temperatures near 26 °C, with historical observations from Benito Juárez International Airport rarely falling below 24 °C. Minimal expected cloud cover and stable upper-level ridging reinforce diurnal heating, though modest afternoon convection or slight wind shifts remain the chief variables that could cap readings near 26 °C. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings scheduled for the next 48 hours will refine the final resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,536End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXRecent ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and supporting global models such as GFS project daytime highs of 26–29 °C in Mexico City on May 18, establishing the dominant market positioning for 27 °C or higher. These outlooks align with the city’s May climatology at 2,240 m elevation, where strong solar insolation during the dry season routinely produces maximum temperatures near 26 °C, with historical observations from Benito Juárez International Airport rarely falling below 24 °C. Minimal expected cloud cover and stable upper-level ridging reinforce diurnal heating, though modest afternoon convection or slight wind shifts remain the chief variables that could cap readings near 26 °C. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings scheduled for the next 48 hours will refine the final resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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