Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, anchoring the market’s slight edge to 34°C. Afternoon convective development over the urban heat island could limit radiative heating and cap the maximum at 33°C, while persistent high pressure and low relative humidity—typical for pre-monsoon May—would favor 35°C if skies remain mostly clear through peak insolation hours. Historical May maxima average near 34°C at the Science Garden station, with day-to-day variance of ±2°C driven primarily by cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated PAGASA briefings and real-time NAIA observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 18?
34°C 36%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
36°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
5%
33°C
19%
34°C
36%
35°C
24%
36°C
10%
37°C
3%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 36%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
36°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
$758 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$89 Vol.
1%
31°C
$179 Vol.
3%
32°C
$49 Vol.
5%
33°C
$369 Vol.
19%
34°C
$61 Vol.
36%
35°C
$55 Vol.
24%
36°C
$1 Vol.
10%
37°C
$10 Vol.
3%
38°C
$126 Vol.
2%
39°C or higher
$167 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, anchoring the market’s slight edge to 34°C. Afternoon convective development over the urban heat island could limit radiative heating and cap the maximum at 33°C, while persistent high pressure and low relative humidity—typical for pre-monsoon May—would favor 35°C if skies remain mostly clear through peak insolation hours. Historical May maxima average near 34°C at the Science Garden station, with day-to-day variance of ±2°C driven primarily by cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated PAGASA briefings and real-time NAIA observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$1,864End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, anchoring the market’s slight edge to 34°C. Afternoon convective development over the urban heat island could limit radiative heating and cap the maximum at 33°C, while persistent high pressure and low relative humidity—typical for pre-monsoon May—would favor 35°C if skies remain mostly clear through peak insolation hours. Historical May maxima average near 34°C at the Science Garden station, with day-to-day variance of ±2°C driven primarily by cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated PAGASA briefings and real-time NAIA observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,864End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, anchoring the market’s slight edge to 34°C. Afternoon convective development over the urban heat island could limit radiative heating and cap the maximum at 33°C, while persistent high pressure and low relative humidity—typical for pre-monsoon May—would favor 35°C if skies remain mostly clear through peak insolation hours. Historical May maxima average near 34°C at the Science Garden station, with day-to-day variance of ±2°C driven primarily by cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated PAGASA briefings and real-time NAIA observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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