PAGASA's latest extended weather outlook, issued May 14, projects a high of 35°C for Metro Manila on May 16 under partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius. This aligns with May's climatological peak, when Manila averages 33°C highs amid the dry season's intense solar heating and urban heat island effects, though sea breezes and localized convection introduce uncertainty. Recent days have seen similar 34-35°C peaks with elevated heat indices nearing danger levels (42°C+), per agency bulletins. Watch for tomorrow's forecast update and heat index advisory, as model refinements could shift implied probabilities before resolution based on official PAGASA station measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 16?
34°C 35%
33°C 25%
35°C 21%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
6%
33°C
25%
34°C
35%
35°C
21%
36°C
6%
37°C
1%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 35%
33°C 25%
35°C 21%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
29°C or below
$93 Vol.
1%
30°C
$133 Vol.
1%
31°C
$60 Vol.
1%
32°C
$94 Vol.
6%
33°C
$179 Vol.
25%
34°C
$139 Vol.
35%
35°C
$0 Vol.
21%
36°C
$82 Vol.
6%
37°C
$158 Vol.
1%
38°C
$22 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$151 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest extended weather outlook, issued May 14, projects a high of 35°C for Metro Manila on May 16 under partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius. This aligns with May's climatological peak, when Manila averages 33°C highs amid the dry season's intense solar heating and urban heat island effects, though sea breezes and localized convection introduce uncertainty. Recent days have seen similar 34-35°C peaks with elevated heat indices nearing danger levels (42°C+), per agency bulletins. Watch for tomorrow's forecast update and heat index advisory, as model refinements could shift implied probabilities before resolution based on official PAGASA station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$1,110End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest extended weather outlook, issued May 14, projects a high of 35°C for Metro Manila on May 16 under partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius. This aligns with May's climatological peak, when Manila averages 33°C highs amid the dry season's intense solar heating and urban heat island effects, though sea breezes and localized convection introduce uncertainty. Recent days have seen similar 34-35°C peaks with elevated heat indices nearing danger levels (42°C+), per agency bulletins. Watch for tomorrow's forecast update and heat index advisory, as model refinements could shift implied probabilities before resolution based on official PAGASA station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,110End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest extended weather outlook, issued May 14, projects a high of 35°C for Metro Manila on May 16 under partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius. This aligns with May's climatological peak, when Manila averages 33°C highs amid the dry season's intense solar heating and urban heat island effects, though sea breezes and localized convection introduce uncertainty. Recent days have seen similar 34-35°C peaks with elevated heat indices nearing danger levels (42°C+), per agency bulletins. Watch for tomorrow's forecast update and heat index advisory, as model refinements could shift implied probabilities before resolution based on official PAGASA station measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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