Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 33°C or higher at 49.5% implied probability for Panama City, Florida, on May 17, driven by National Weather Service extended forecasts and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) projecting daytime highs in the upper 88–92°F range (31–33°C) amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Southeast U.S. Recent 48-hour model updates have trended slightly warmer, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity enhancing solar heating potential above May climatological averages of 28–29°C. Lower outcomes like 31–32°C (20.5% each) reflect uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and minor convective interference, while sub-30°C probabilities remain low. Watch for the NWS 12z forecast discussion on May 16, which could shift model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 17?
Highest temperature in Panama City on May 17?
33°C or higher 50%
32°C 24%
31°C 19%
30°C 14.9%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
10%
31°C
19%
32°C
24%
33°C or higher
53%
33°C or higher 50%
32°C 24%
31°C 19%
30°C 14.9%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$108 Vol.
1%
26°C
$122 Vol.
1%
27°C
$118 Vol.
1%
28°C
$140 Vol.
3%
29°C
$67 Vol.
4%
30°C
$24 Vol.
10%
31°C
$262 Vol.
19%
32°C
$0 Vol.
24%
33°C or higher
$41 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 33°C or higher at 49.5% implied probability for Panama City, Florida, on May 17, driven by National Weather Service extended forecasts and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) projecting daytime highs in the upper 88–92°F range (31–33°C) amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Southeast U.S. Recent 48-hour model updates have trended slightly warmer, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity enhancing solar heating potential above May climatological averages of 28–29°C. Lower outcomes like 31–32°C (20.5% each) reflect uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and minor convective interference, while sub-30°C probabilities remain low. Watch for the NWS 12z forecast discussion on May 16, which could shift model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$1,348End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 33°C or higher at 49.5% implied probability for Panama City, Florida, on May 17, driven by National Weather Service extended forecasts and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) projecting daytime highs in the upper 88–92°F range (31–33°C) amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Southeast U.S. Recent 48-hour model updates have trended slightly warmer, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity enhancing solar heating potential above May climatological averages of 28–29°C. Lower outcomes like 31–32°C (20.5% each) reflect uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and minor convective interference, while sub-30°C probabilities remain low. Watch for the NWS 12z forecast discussion on May 16, which could shift model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,348End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 33°C or higher at 49.5% implied probability for Panama City, Florida, on May 17, driven by National Weather Service extended forecasts and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) projecting daytime highs in the upper 88–92°F range (31–33°C) amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Southeast U.S. Recent 48-hour model updates have trended slightly warmer, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and low humidity enhancing solar heating potential above May climatological averages of 28–29°C. Lower outcomes like 31–32°C (20.5% each) reflect uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and minor convective interference, while sub-30°C probabilities remain low. Watch for the NWS 12z forecast discussion on May 16, which could shift model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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