Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have converged on a peak temperature of 12–13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, aligning with the near-equal market-implied probabilities for these outcomes. Persistent cool northerly airflow across central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high of approximately 19 °C. Small differences in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts account for the narrow spread separating the 12 °C and 13 °C contracts, while the modest 19.5 % probability on 14 °C reflects limited upside potential if insolation exceeds current projections. Traders are closely tracking the final 24-hour model runs and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
13°C 35%
12°C 29.5%
14°C 19%
11°C 14%
NEW
$16,496 Vol.
NEW
$16,496 Vol.
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
14%
12°C
30%
13°C
35%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
8%
13°C 35%
12°C 29.5%
14°C 19%
11°C 14%
NEW
$16,496 Vol.
NEW
$16,496 Vol.
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
$660 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$979 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$683 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$855 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,113 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,982 Vol.
14%
12°C
$1,427 Vol.
30%
13°C
$2,317 Vol.
35%
14°C
$2,494 Vol.
19%
15°C or higher
$2,578 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have converged on a peak temperature of 12–13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, aligning with the near-equal market-implied probabilities for these outcomes. Persistent cool northerly airflow across central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high of approximately 19 °C. Small differences in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts account for the narrow spread separating the 12 °C and 13 °C contracts, while the modest 19.5 % probability on 14 °C reflects limited upside potential if insolation exceeds current projections. Traders are closely tracking the final 24-hour model runs and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$16,496End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have converged on a peak temperature of 12–13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, aligning with the near-equal market-implied probabilities for these outcomes. Persistent cool northerly airflow across central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high of approximately 19 °C. Small differences in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts account for the narrow spread separating the 12 °C and 13 °C contracts, while the modest 19.5 % probability on 14 °C reflects limited upside potential if insolation exceeds current projections. Traders are closely tracking the final 24-hour model runs and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,496End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWARecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have converged on a peak temperature of 12–13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, aligning with the near-equal market-implied probabilities for these outcomes. Persistent cool northerly airflow across central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high of approximately 19 °C. Small differences in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts account for the narrow spread separating the 12 °C and 13 °C contracts, while the modest 19.5 % probability on 14 °C reflects limited upside potential if insolation exceeds current projections. Traders are closely tracking the final 24-hour model runs and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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