Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, along with ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, converge on a 19°C overnight minimum for Shanghai on May 16 under persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow that limits radiative cooling at the official Xujiahui station. Mid-May climatology places typical lows near 17–19°C, and recent observations confirm stable mild conditions with light winds and cloud cover trapping heat near the surface, sustaining a warm bias above seasonal averages. This model consensus anchors the market-implied 99.3% probability for 19°C. Traders see 18°C as the main alternative if skies clear overnight, while stronger warm advection could nudge readings to 20°C, though final station readings through dawn will resolve the narrow uncertainty band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 16?
19°C 99.3%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
17°C <1%
$41,772 Vol.
$41,772 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.3%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
17°C <1%
$41,772 Vol.
$41,772 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$3,076 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$3,270 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,514 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,856 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$890 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,650 Vol.
99%
20°C
$14,942 Vol.
1%
21°C
$985 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$615 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,568 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$10,405 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, along with ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, converge on a 19°C overnight minimum for Shanghai on May 16 under persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow that limits radiative cooling at the official Xujiahui station. Mid-May climatology places typical lows near 17–19°C, and recent observations confirm stable mild conditions with light winds and cloud cover trapping heat near the surface, sustaining a warm bias above seasonal averages. This model consensus anchors the market-implied 99.3% probability for 19°C. Traders see 18°C as the main alternative if skies clear overnight, while stronger warm advection could nudge readings to 20°C, though final station readings through dawn will resolve the narrow uncertainty band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$41,772End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, along with ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, converge on a 19°C overnight minimum for Shanghai on May 16 under persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow that limits radiative cooling at the official Xujiahui station. Mid-May climatology places typical lows near 17–19°C, and recent observations confirm stable mild conditions with light winds and cloud cover trapping heat near the surface, sustaining a warm bias above seasonal averages. This model consensus anchors the market-implied 99.3% probability for 19°C. Traders see 18°C as the main alternative if skies clear overnight, while stronger warm advection could nudge readings to 20°C, though final station readings through dawn will resolve the narrow uncertainty band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,772End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDLatest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, along with ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, converge on a 19°C overnight minimum for Shanghai on May 16 under persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow that limits radiative cooling at the official Xujiahui station. Mid-May climatology places typical lows near 17–19°C, and recent observations confirm stable mild conditions with light winds and cloud cover trapping heat near the surface, sustaining a warm bias above seasonal averages. This model consensus anchors the market-implied 99.3% probability for 19°C. Traders see 18°C as the main alternative if skies clear overnight, while stronger warm advection could nudge readings to 20°C, though final station readings through dawn will resolve the narrow uncertainty band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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