Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 14?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 14?
32°C 32%
33°C 28%
31°C 16%
30°C 8%
NEW
$10,164 Vol.
NEW
$10,164 Vol.
May 14, 2026
27°C or below
3%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
16%
32°C
32%
33°C
28%
34°C
5%
35°C
3%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
2%
32°C 32%
33°C 28%
31°C 16%
30°C 8%
NEW
$10,164 Vol.
NEW
$10,164 Vol.
May 14, 2026
27°C or below
$1,319 Vol.
3%
28°C
$842 Vol.
1%
29°C
$430 Vol.
3%
30°C
$745 Vol.
8%
31°C
$319 Vol.
16%
32°C
$338 Vol.
32%
33°C
$710 Vol.
28%
34°C
$980 Vol.
5%
35°C
$605 Vol.
3%
36°C
$1,501 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$2,377 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$10,164End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,164End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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