Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to a highest temperature of 33°C in Lagos today, backed by converging forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and international models like those from the UK Met Office and AccuWeather, projecting a daytime peak around 32-33°C under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly sea breezes and high humidity near 80% capping heat buildup. Current observations at key stations like Oshodi show midday readings in the low 30s°C, consistent with May climatology where average highs are 31-32°C amid the transition from dry harmattan conditions. This positioning reflects strong model agreement on moderated warming from cloud cover and moisture influx. Realistic challenges include afternoon cloud breaks allowing solar heating to push toward 34°C, though low wind shear and persistent onshore flow make 36°C+ unlikely; traders await NiMet's evening bulletin and airport data for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 13?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 13?
33°C 98.3%
36°C or higher 1.3%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$34,572 Vol.
$34,572 Vol.
May 13, 2026
33°C
98%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 98.3%
36°C or higher 1.3%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$34,572 Vol.
$34,572 Vol.
May 13, 2026
33°C
$5,477 Vol.
98%
34°C
$3,386 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$3,369 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$7,398 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to a highest temperature of 33°C in Lagos today, backed by converging forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and international models like those from the UK Met Office and AccuWeather, projecting a daytime peak around 32-33°C under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly sea breezes and high humidity near 80% capping heat buildup. Current observations at key stations like Oshodi show midday readings in the low 30s°C, consistent with May climatology where average highs are 31-32°C amid the transition from dry harmattan conditions. This positioning reflects strong model agreement on moderated warming from cloud cover and moisture influx. Realistic challenges include afternoon cloud breaks allowing solar heating to push toward 34°C, though low wind shear and persistent onshore flow make 36°C+ unlikely; traders await NiMet's evening bulletin and airport data for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$34,572End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to a highest temperature of 33°C in Lagos today, backed by converging forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and international models like those from the UK Met Office and AccuWeather, projecting a daytime peak around 32-33°C under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly sea breezes and high humidity near 80% capping heat buildup. Current observations at key stations like Oshodi show midday readings in the low 30s°C, consistent with May climatology where average highs are 31-32°C amid the transition from dry harmattan conditions. This positioning reflects strong model agreement on moderated warming from cloud cover and moisture influx. Realistic challenges include afternoon cloud breaks allowing solar heating to push toward 34°C, though low wind shear and persistent onshore flow make 36°C+ unlikely; traders await NiMet's evening bulletin and airport data for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,572End Date
May 13, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to a highest temperature of 33°C in Lagos today, backed by converging forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and international models like those from the UK Met Office and AccuWeather, projecting a daytime peak around 32-33°C under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly sea breezes and high humidity near 80% capping heat buildup. Current observations at key stations like Oshodi show midday readings in the low 30s°C, consistent with May climatology where average highs are 31-32°C amid the transition from dry harmattan conditions. This positioning reflects strong model agreement on moderated warming from cloud cover and moisture influx. Realistic challenges include afternoon cloud breaks allowing solar heating to push toward 34°C, though low wind shear and persistent onshore flow make 36°C+ unlikely; traders await NiMet's evening bulletin and airport data for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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