National Weather Service forecasts and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show strong consensus for Denver's high temperature on May 15 exceeding 80°F, well above the 74°F threshold, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 74°F or higher. This positioning stems from a robust upper-level ridge over the Rockies promoting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and adiabatic heating at Denver's elevation, following a dramatic pattern shift after the record-breaking May 5-6 snowstorm that dumped up to half a foot in the city. Trader sentiment reflects high-confidence model agreement with minimal precipitation odds under 10%. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level moisture influx causing clouds or a faster-moving shortwave trough, though current guidance shows low risk; watch final NWS updates and morning soundings for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on May 15?
Highest temperature in Denver on May 15?
74°F or higher 99.5%
72-73°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
NEW
$45,939 Vol.
NEW
$45,939 Vol.
May 15, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
100%
74°F or higher 99.5%
72-73°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
NEW
$45,939 Vol.
NEW
$45,939 Vol.
May 15, 2026
55°F or below
$16,960 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$3,554 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$2,032 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$2,179 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,873 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,919 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$2,620 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,193 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$2,287 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$4,473 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$5,858 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show strong consensus for Denver's high temperature on May 15 exceeding 80°F, well above the 74°F threshold, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 74°F or higher. This positioning stems from a robust upper-level ridge over the Rockies promoting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and adiabatic heating at Denver's elevation, following a dramatic pattern shift after the record-breaking May 5-6 snowstorm that dumped up to half a foot in the city. Trader sentiment reflects high-confidence model agreement with minimal precipitation odds under 10%. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level moisture influx causing clouds or a faster-moving shortwave trough, though current guidance shows low risk; watch final NWS updates and morning soundings for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volume
$45,939End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show strong consensus for Denver's high temperature on May 15 exceeding 80°F, well above the 74°F threshold, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 74°F or higher. This positioning stems from a robust upper-level ridge over the Rockies promoting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and adiabatic heating at Denver's elevation, following a dramatic pattern shift after the record-breaking May 5-6 snowstorm that dumped up to half a foot in the city. Trader sentiment reflects high-confidence model agreement with minimal precipitation odds under 10%. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level moisture influx causing clouds or a faster-moving shortwave trough, though current guidance shows low risk; watch final NWS updates and morning soundings for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,939End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show strong consensus for Denver's high temperature on May 15 exceeding 80°F, well above the 74°F threshold, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for 74°F or higher. This positioning stems from a robust upper-level ridge over the Rockies promoting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and adiabatic heating at Denver's elevation, following a dramatic pattern shift after the record-breaking May 5-6 snowstorm that dumped up to half a foot in the city. Trader sentiment reflects high-confidence model agreement with minimal precipitation odds under 10%. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level moisture influx causing clouds or a faster-moving shortwave trough, though current guidance shows low risk; watch final NWS updates and morning soundings for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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