Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service indicates a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, advecting warm, dry air into central Texas and positioning Austin for a daily maximum temperature of 90°F or higher on May 18. This pattern, featuring light southerly winds, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market-implied 75.5% probability for that outcome. Ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF show little deviation from above-normal readings, with historical May averages near 85°F providing climatological context for the elevated risk. Traders continue to watch for any late shifts in the upper-level flow that could moderate temperatures before the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 18?
90°F or higher 75%
86-87°F 11%
88-89°F 10%
84-85°F 4%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
10%
90°F or higher
75%
90°F or higher 75%
86-87°F 11%
88-89°F 10%
84-85°F 4%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
71°F or below
$663 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$752 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$701 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$581 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$301 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$597 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$94 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$120 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$135 Vol.
11%
88-89°F
$96 Vol.
10%
90°F or higher
$180 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service indicates a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, advecting warm, dry air into central Texas and positioning Austin for a daily maximum temperature of 90°F or higher on May 18. This pattern, featuring light southerly winds, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market-implied 75.5% probability for that outcome. Ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF show little deviation from above-normal readings, with historical May averages near 85°F providing climatological context for the elevated risk. Traders continue to watch for any late shifts in the upper-level flow that could moderate temperatures before the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$4,105End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service indicates a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, advecting warm, dry air into central Texas and positioning Austin for a daily maximum temperature of 90°F or higher on May 18. This pattern, featuring light southerly winds, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market-implied 75.5% probability for that outcome. Ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF show little deviation from above-normal readings, with historical May averages near 85°F providing climatological context for the elevated risk. Traders continue to watch for any late shifts in the upper-level flow that could moderate temperatures before the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,105End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSCurrent forecast guidance from the National Weather Service indicates a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, advecting warm, dry air into central Texas and positioning Austin for a daily maximum temperature of 90°F or higher on May 18. This pattern, featuring light southerly winds, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market-implied 75.5% probability for that outcome. Ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF show little deviation from above-normal readings, with historical May averages near 85°F providing climatological context for the elevated risk. Traders continue to watch for any late shifts in the upper-level flow that could moderate temperatures before the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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