National Weather Service guidance and NOAA model ensembles position Austin's May 16 high temperature in the upper 80s to low 90s, driving trader consensus toward 90°F or higher at 45.5% and 88-89°F at 30.5% on Polymarket. Persistent south-southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph, fostering warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico, support these market-implied odds following recovery from early May thunderstorms—including damaging winds on May 10—that temporarily cooled the region. Partial cloud cover introduces uncertainty, with potential to limit peaks via reduced insolation, while climatological May averages near 86°F provide baseline context. Updated 12Z GFS/ECMWF runs and afternoon soundings from Austin-Bergstrom could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 16?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 16?
90°F or higher 42%
88-89°F 31%
86-87°F 22%
84-85°F 2.7%
NEW
$30,376 Vol.
NEW
$30,376 Vol.
May 16, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
31%
90°F or higher
42%
90°F or higher 42%
88-89°F 31%
86-87°F 22%
84-85°F 2.7%
NEW
$30,376 Vol.
NEW
$30,376 Vol.
May 16, 2026
71°F or below
$9,296 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$6,687 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,682 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$3,064 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,789 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,508 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$592 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$753 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$890 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$886 Vol.
31%
90°F or higher
$2,229 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and NOAA model ensembles position Austin's May 16 high temperature in the upper 80s to low 90s, driving trader consensus toward 90°F or higher at 45.5% and 88-89°F at 30.5% on Polymarket. Persistent south-southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph, fostering warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico, support these market-implied odds following recovery from early May thunderstorms—including damaging winds on May 10—that temporarily cooled the region. Partial cloud cover introduces uncertainty, with potential to limit peaks via reduced insolation, while climatological May averages near 86°F provide baseline context. Updated 12Z GFS/ECMWF runs and afternoon soundings from Austin-Bergstrom could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$30,376End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and NOAA model ensembles position Austin's May 16 high temperature in the upper 80s to low 90s, driving trader consensus toward 90°F or higher at 45.5% and 88-89°F at 30.5% on Polymarket. Persistent south-southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph, fostering warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico, support these market-implied odds following recovery from early May thunderstorms—including damaging winds on May 10—that temporarily cooled the region. Partial cloud cover introduces uncertainty, with potential to limit peaks via reduced insolation, while climatological May averages near 86°F provide baseline context. Updated 12Z GFS/ECMWF runs and afternoon soundings from Austin-Bergstrom could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,376End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance and NOAA model ensembles position Austin's May 16 high temperature in the upper 80s to low 90s, driving trader consensus toward 90°F or higher at 45.5% and 88-89°F at 30.5% on Polymarket. Persistent south-southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph, fostering warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico, support these market-implied odds following recovery from early May thunderstorms—including damaging winds on May 10—that temporarily cooled the region. Partial cloud cover introduces uncertainty, with potential to limit peaks via reduced insolation, while climatological May averages near 86°F provide baseline context. Updated 12Z GFS/ECMWF runs and afternoon soundings from Austin-Bergstrom could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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