Latest Met Office and ensemble model guidance point to a highest temperature in London on May 18 clustering tightly around 15–16 °C, as a moderate Atlantic low-pressure system delivers variable cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit surface heating. Mid-May climatology normally favors 16–17 °C maxima, yet cooler-than-average spring conditions this year have kept radiative cooling stronger overnight and daytime insolation reduced, splitting probability among the 14 °C, 15 °C, and 16 °C contracts. Updated runs show only modest spread tied to exact cloud timing and shower placement, with any unexpected clearing potentially pushing readings toward 17 °C while lingering rain would cap them near 14 °C. Traders are therefore pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 18?
Highest temperature in London on May 18?
15°C 32%
16°C 30%
14°C 25%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
4%
13°C
6%
14°C
25%
15°C
32%
16°C
30%
17°C
10%
18°C or higher
7%
15°C 32%
16°C 30%
14°C 25%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$249 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$477 Vol.
1%
10°C
$250 Vol.
1%
11°C
$659 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$181 Vol.
4%
13°C
$257 Vol.
6%
14°C
$225 Vol.
25%
15°C
$232 Vol.
32%
16°C
$309 Vol.
30%
17°C
$176 Vol.
10%
18°C or higher
$220 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Met Office and ensemble model guidance point to a highest temperature in London on May 18 clustering tightly around 15–16 °C, as a moderate Atlantic low-pressure system delivers variable cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit surface heating. Mid-May climatology normally favors 16–17 °C maxima, yet cooler-than-average spring conditions this year have kept radiative cooling stronger overnight and daytime insolation reduced, splitting probability among the 14 °C, 15 °C, and 16 °C contracts. Updated runs show only modest spread tied to exact cloud timing and shower placement, with any unexpected clearing potentially pushing readings toward 17 °C while lingering rain would cap them near 14 °C. Traders are therefore pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,235End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Met Office and ensemble model guidance point to a highest temperature in London on May 18 clustering tightly around 15–16 °C, as a moderate Atlantic low-pressure system delivers variable cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit surface heating. Mid-May climatology normally favors 16–17 °C maxima, yet cooler-than-average spring conditions this year have kept radiative cooling stronger overnight and daytime insolation reduced, splitting probability among the 14 °C, 15 °C, and 16 °C contracts. Updated runs show only modest spread tied to exact cloud timing and shower placement, with any unexpected clearing potentially pushing readings toward 17 °C while lingering rain would cap them near 14 °C. Traders are therefore pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,235End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCLatest Met Office and ensemble model guidance point to a highest temperature in London on May 18 clustering tightly around 15–16 °C, as a moderate Atlantic low-pressure system delivers variable cloud cover, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit surface heating. Mid-May climatology normally favors 16–17 °C maxima, yet cooler-than-average spring conditions this year have kept radiative cooling stronger overnight and daytime insolation reduced, splitting probability among the 14 °C, 15 °C, and 16 °C contracts. Updated runs show only modest spread tied to exact cloud timing and shower placement, with any unexpected clearing potentially pushing readings toward 17 °C while lingering rain would cap them near 14 °C. Traders are therefore pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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