Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 66.1% implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting hawkish signals from the April board summary released May 12 showing some members advocating a near-term increase amid inflation risks and yen weakness near 158 per dollar. The BOJ held its short-term rate steady at 0.75% in late April despite three dissenters pushing for a hike, as March core CPI rose to 1.5% and real wages improved, bolstering normalization expectations. No-change odds at 34% capture caution over global tensions like Middle East conflicts, with the next CPI release a key pre-meeting catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 66.1%
No change 34%
Decrease rates <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$100,606 Vol.
$100,606 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
34%
25 bps increase
66%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase 66.1%
No change 34%
Decrease rates <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$100,606 Vol.
$100,606 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$32,829 Vol.
1%
No change
$24,984 Vol.
34%
25 bps increase
$22,616 Vol.
66%
50+ bps increase
$20,177 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 66.1% implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting hawkish signals from the April board summary released May 12 showing some members advocating a near-term increase amid inflation risks and yen weakness near 158 per dollar. The BOJ held its short-term rate steady at 0.75% in late April despite three dissenters pushing for a hike, as March core CPI rose to 1.5% and real wages improved, bolstering normalization expectations. No-change odds at 34% capture caution over global tensions like Middle East conflicts, with the next CPI release a key pre-meeting catalyst.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$100,606End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 66.1% implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting hawkish signals from the April board summary released May 12 showing some members advocating a near-term increase amid inflation risks and yen weakness near 158 per dollar. The BOJ held its short-term rate steady at 0.75% in late April despite three dissenters pushing for a hike, as March core CPI rose to 1.5% and real wages improved, bolstering normalization expectations. No-change odds at 34% capture caution over global tensions like Middle East conflicts, with the next CPI release a key pre-meeting catalyst.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$100,606End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 66.1% implied probability of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting hawkish signals from the April board summary released May 12 showing some members advocating a near-term increase amid inflation risks and yen weakness near 158 per dollar. The BOJ held its short-term rate steady at 0.75% in late April despite three dissenters pushing for a hike, as March core CPI rose to 1.5% and real wages improved, bolstering normalization expectations. No-change odds at 34% capture caution over global tensions like Middle East conflicts, with the next CPI release a key pre-meeting catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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