The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the July meeting. Upward revisions to core inflation forecasts—to 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 amid energy-price pressures from the Iran conflict—have reinforced expectations of gradual normalization while the central bank’s lowered growth outlook for the same period introduces caution. Economists currently assign roughly a 65 percent probability of a June 15-16 rate increase, which would likely leave the July policy meeting unchanged and align with the 58.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage-price dynamics continues to support the secondary 40.5 percent pricing for a 25-basis-point move, should the June decision be delayed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Vol.
1%
No change
$20 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$86 Vol.
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 Vol.
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the July meeting. Upward revisions to core inflation forecasts—to 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 amid energy-price pressures from the Iran conflict—have reinforced expectations of gradual normalization while the central bank’s lowered growth outlook for the same period introduces caution. Economists currently assign roughly a 65 percent probability of a June 15-16 rate increase, which would likely leave the July policy meeting unchanged and align with the 58.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage-price dynamics continues to support the secondary 40.5 percent pricing for a 25-basis-point move, should the June decision be delayed.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$921End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the July meeting. Upward revisions to core inflation forecasts—to 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 amid energy-price pressures from the Iran conflict—have reinforced expectations of gradual normalization while the central bank’s lowered growth outlook for the same period introduces caution. Economists currently assign roughly a 65 percent probability of a June 15-16 rate increase, which would likely leave the July policy meeting unchanged and align with the 58.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage-price dynamics continues to support the secondary 40.5 percent pricing for a 25-basis-point move, should the June decision be delayed.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$921End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the July meeting. Upward revisions to core inflation forecasts—to 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026 amid energy-price pressures from the Iran conflict—have reinforced expectations of gradual normalization while the central bank’s lowered growth outlook for the same period introduces caution. Economists currently assign roughly a 65 percent probability of a June 15-16 rate increase, which would likely leave the July policy meeting unchanged and align with the 58.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage-price dynamics continues to support the secondary 40.5 percent pricing for a 25-basis-point move, should the June decision be delayed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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