Recent Israeli election polls project Likud at roughly 18-23 Knesset seats, well below its current 32, amid consistent averages across multiple pollsters. This positioning stems from voter shifts following the October 2023 Hamas attacks, prolonged conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, and internal right-wing fragmentation after party lists closed. New entrants such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party have drawn support from Likud’s base, while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc hovers near or below 50-54 seats. Opposition parties maintain competitive totals near 51-55. Traders interpret these sustained trends and bloc dynamics as strong signals that Likud will lose seats in the upcoming vote.