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Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

icon for Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

42% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
42% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Divided congressional priorities and recent committee outcomes on the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act have kept the House evenly split on legislation that would limit or condition defense article transfers to Israel. Bipartisan amendments seeking restrictions, including efforts tied to appropriations measures and resolutions like H.R. 3565, have surfaced amid negotiations over a new bilateral aid framework, yet leadership opposition and failed attempts to strip integration provisions signal sustained resistance. The narrow window through September 30 leaves room for floor votes during defense spending debates or supplemental packages, where shifts in whip counts, progressive Democratic pressure, or Republican holds could alter passage odds either way. Trader consensus at even money reflects these procedural uncertainties and competing party dynamics ahead of scheduled markup and floor action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
30 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Divided congressional priorities and recent committee outcomes on the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act have kept the House evenly split on legislation that would limit or condition defense article transfers to Israel. Bipartisan amendments seeking restrictions, including efforts tied to appropriations measures and resolutions like H.R. 3565, have surfaced amid negotiations over a new bilateral aid framework, yet leadership opposition and failed attempts to strip integration provisions signal sustained resistance. The narrow window through September 30 leaves room for floor votes during defense spending debates or supplemental packages, where shifts in whip counts, progressive Democratic pressure, or Republican holds could alter passage odds either way. Trader consensus at even money reflects these procedural uncertainties and competing party dynamics ahead of scheduled markup and floor action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
30 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 42% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 42¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 42% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 29, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" è 42% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 42% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.