This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran.
- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations to extend the fragile ceasefire and address core demands have intensified ahead of the June 30 deadline, with President Trump signaling a potential memorandum of understanding in coming days. Key financial drivers include the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which directly influences global oil supply flows and Brent crude pricing, alongside conditional sanctions relief and frozen asset releases that could ease pressure on energy markets and Iranian export revenues. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Trump will accept Iranian red lines on missile programs or enrichment limits in exchange for verified nuclear constraints, as any breakthrough would likely compress oil volatility measures while a breakdown risks renewed supply disruptions. Upcoming catalysts include further mediated talks and any interim economic data releases tied to regional stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations to extend the fragile ceasefire and address core demands have intensified ahead of the June 30 deadline, with President Trump signaling a potential memorandum of understanding in coming days. Key financial drivers include the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which directly influences global oil supply flows and Brent crude pricing, alongside conditional sanctions relief and frozen asset releases that could ease pressure on energy markets and Iranian export revenues. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Trump will accept Iranian red lines on missile programs or enrichment limits in exchange for verified nuclear constraints, as any breakthrough would likely compress oil volatility measures while a breakdown risks renewed supply disruptions. Upcoming catalysts include further mediated talks and any interim economic data releases tied to regional stability.
Iran-US agree on 60-day ceasefire extension, uranium stockpile remains in Iran
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 16%6%
The Islamabad Declaration was agreed, extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remained untouched during 60-day follow-on talks, indicating no US acceptance of continued enrichment yet.
Jun 12 2026
Trump edits US-Iran memorandum focusing on Strait of Hormuz and uranium removal
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 7%8%
Trump made significant edits to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasizing reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the removal and destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium. This underscored US insistence on uranium removal rather than acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 12 2026
Reports confirm Iran's refusal to limit uranium enrichment, complicating US deal
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 8%8%
Iran asserted no limits on uranium enrichment under IAEA supervision, contradicting US demands and complicating negotiations, which contributed to further market decline in the probability of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 12 2026
Trump makes major nuclear concession but uranium enrichment remains unresolved
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%8%
Reports indicated Trump agreed to a major concession to end the war, but uranium enrichment demands remained a sticking point, with no definitive US acceptance of Iran's continued enrichment, keeping market probability low.
Jun 11 2026
US evacuates embassies amid Iranian threats, raising tensions
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 10%6%
US embassies in Iraq and Arab states began evacuations due to Iranian threats, increasing geopolitical tensions and reducing market optimism for US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment rights.
Jun 11 2026
US embassies evacuate personnel amid Iranian threats, raising tensions
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%9%
In response to Iranian threats on American bases, US embassies in Iraq and other Arab states began evacuations, increasing tensions and complicating negotiations. This likely contributed to market pessimism about a deal including acceptance of enrichment.
Jun 10 2026
Iran refuses to send enriched uranium abroad, hardening stance
Iran's Supreme Leader directed that enriched uranium must remain in Iran, rejecting US demands to transfer uranium abroad, further reducing chances of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 7 2026
Trump says US will work with Iran to destroy enriched uranium if deal is made
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 6%3%
Trump stated the US would cooperate with Iran to retrieve and destroy its highly enriched uranium if a deal to end the war is reached, or otherwise degrade Iran's military to collect it unilaterally. This showed openness to a deal but no definitive acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 4 2026
Trump says US does not need a deal to retrieve Iran's enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
President Trump stated that the US could retrieve Iran's enriched uranium without a formal deal but saw no reason to do so. This indicated a willingness to act unilaterally, reducing the likelihood of a negotiated acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 29 2026
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand back enriched uranium stocks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 14%2%
Trump announced that Iran had agreed to return its enriched uranium stockpile, suggesting progress in negotiations, but Iran did not confirm, leading to limited market impact and continued skepticism.
May 29 2026
Trump announces Iran agreed to nuclear disarmament and Hormuz reopening
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 16%2%
Trump posted that Iran agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, including joint destruction of buried enriched uranium, but the announcement lacked confirmation, limiting market confidence in uranium enrichment acceptance.
May 29 2026
Trump ends Iran meeting without final deal, reiterates uranium removal plan
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 9%7%
Trump concluded a meeting without announcing a final agreement but emphasized that the US would unearth and destroy Iran's enriched uranium buried at bombed sites, maintaining a hardline stance and limiting chances of US acceptance of enrichment.
May 28 2026
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement including uranium moratorium
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 19%6%
Media reported that the US and Iran were close to a peace deal including a temporary moratorium on uranium enrichment and discussions on sanctions relief and reopening maritime trade. This raised market optimism for some agreement but not definitive acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 28 2026
US-Iran peace deal reportedly includes $300B reconstruction fund
Oil Sanction Relief jumps to 59%14%
Reports of a $300 billion reconstruction fund in a US-Iran peace deal suggested progress on broader negotiations, but did not indicate US acceptance of uranium enrichment, reflecting mixed market signals.
May 27 2026
Trump opposes Iran transferring enriched uranium to Russia or China
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 16%9%
President Trump rejected the possibility of Iran transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia or China, reinforcing US demands for direct control or destruction of the material and limiting diplomatic options.
May 26 2026
Trump outlines options to destroy or take Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 16%3%
Trump detailed plans for Iran's enriched uranium to be either surrendered to the US or destroyed in coordination with Iran, but no definitive agreement was reached, maintaining market uncertainty and downward pressure on enrichment acceptance.
May 26 2026
Trump outlines options for destroying Iran's enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 16%9%
Trump detailed plans for destroying Iran's enriched uranium either after transfer to the US or in place, signaling no acceptance of Iran's continued enrichment and maintaining pressure on uranium issues in negotiations.
May 24 2026
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium after Trump claim
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 19%6%
Iran's foreign ministry denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium to the US, contradicting Trump's claims and reinforcing market doubts about US acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 24 2026
Reports indicate US-Iran deal near on uranium stockpile surrender
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
Reports emerged that Iran had agreed in principle to give up its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace agreement, raising hopes for a deal but lacking Iranian confirmation, causing mixed market reactions.
May 24 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Trump demands Iran abandon nuclear enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
Netanyahu stated that Trump agreed any deal with Iran must include dismantling Iran's nuclear enrichment sites and removing enriched uranium, reinforcing US hardline demands and reducing likelihood of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 23 2026
US officials report Iran's apparent commitment to give up enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
US officials indicated that Iran had made an apparent commitment to relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a proposed agreement, raising some market hopes though uncertainty remained about final terms.
May 23 2026
Iran agrees to give up highly enriched uranium stockpile in deal announced by Trump
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
US officials reported that Iran committed to relinquishing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a proposed agreement, a key US demand. This raised market hopes for a deal including uranium disposition, but the commitment was general and not a definitive acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 22 2026
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
President Trump publicly stated that the US would seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, signaling a hardline stance against Iran's nuclear program. This announcement increased market doubts about US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment, contributing to a price drop in the enrichment outcome.
May 21 2026
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
President Trump publicly stated that the US will seize or destroy Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy on Iran's nuclear weapons capability. This hardened stance decreased market expectations for US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment.
May 21 2026
President Trump vows to recover Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
Trump publicly declared that the US will eventually recover Iran's highly enriched uranium, signaling a firm US stance against allowing Iran to retain enriched uranium. This statement contributed to a decline in market optimism for US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump announced plans for US collaboration with Iran and the IAEA to excavate and destroy uranium deposits, indicating a focus on uranium removal rather than acceptance of enrichment. This contributed to market pessimism about US agreement to continued enrichment.
May 21 2026
Trump states US will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
President Trump publicly declared that the US would seize or destroy Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance and reducing market expectations for US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment rights.
May 21 2026
Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA supervision
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
Iran's UN mission declared there are no restrictions on uranium enrichment levels under IAEA oversight, contradicting US demands and complicating deal talks. This statement supported market expectations that Iran would continue enrichment, reducing chances of a US agreement to accept enrichment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran.
- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations to extend the fragile ceasefire and address core demands have intensified ahead of the June 30 deadline, with President Trump signaling a potential memorandum of understanding in coming days. Key financial drivers include the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which directly influences global oil supply flows and Brent crude pricing, alongside conditional sanctions relief and frozen asset releases that could ease pressure on energy markets and Iranian export revenues. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Trump will accept Iranian red lines on missile programs or enrichment limits in exchange for verified nuclear constraints, as any breakthrough would likely compress oil volatility measures while a breakdown risks renewed supply disruptions. Upcoming catalysts include further mediated talks and any interim economic data releases tied to regional stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations to extend the fragile ceasefire and address core demands have intensified ahead of the June 30 deadline, with President Trump signaling a potential memorandum of understanding in coming days. Key financial drivers include the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which directly influences global oil supply flows and Brent crude pricing, alongside conditional sanctions relief and frozen asset releases that could ease pressure on energy markets and Iranian export revenues. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Trump will accept Iranian red lines on missile programs or enrichment limits in exchange for verified nuclear constraints, as any breakthrough would likely compress oil volatility measures while a breakdown risks renewed supply disruptions. Upcoming catalysts include further mediated talks and any interim economic data releases tied to regional stability.
Iran-US agree on 60-day ceasefire extension, uranium stockpile remains in Iran
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 16%6%
The Islamabad Declaration was agreed, extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remained untouched during 60-day follow-on talks, indicating no US acceptance of continued enrichment yet.
Jun 12 2026
Trump edits US-Iran memorandum focusing on Strait of Hormuz and uranium removal
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 7%8%
Trump made significant edits to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasizing reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the removal and destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium. This underscored US insistence on uranium removal rather than acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 12 2026
Reports confirm Iran's refusal to limit uranium enrichment, complicating US deal
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 8%8%
Iran asserted no limits on uranium enrichment under IAEA supervision, contradicting US demands and complicating negotiations, which contributed to further market decline in the probability of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 12 2026
Trump makes major nuclear concession but uranium enrichment remains unresolved
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%8%
Reports indicated Trump agreed to a major concession to end the war, but uranium enrichment demands remained a sticking point, with no definitive US acceptance of Iran's continued enrichment, keeping market probability low.
Jun 11 2026
US evacuates embassies amid Iranian threats, raising tensions
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 10%6%
US embassies in Iraq and Arab states began evacuations due to Iranian threats, increasing geopolitical tensions and reducing market optimism for US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment rights.
Jun 11 2026
US embassies evacuate personnel amid Iranian threats, raising tensions
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%9%
In response to Iranian threats on American bases, US embassies in Iraq and other Arab states began evacuations, increasing tensions and complicating negotiations. This likely contributed to market pessimism about a deal including acceptance of enrichment.
Jun 10 2026
Iran refuses to send enriched uranium abroad, hardening stance
Iran's Supreme Leader directed that enriched uranium must remain in Iran, rejecting US demands to transfer uranium abroad, further reducing chances of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 7 2026
Trump says US will work with Iran to destroy enriched uranium if deal is made
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 6%3%
Trump stated the US would cooperate with Iran to retrieve and destroy its highly enriched uranium if a deal to end the war is reached, or otherwise degrade Iran's military to collect it unilaterally. This showed openness to a deal but no definitive acceptance of continued enrichment.
Jun 4 2026
Trump says US does not need a deal to retrieve Iran's enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
President Trump stated that the US could retrieve Iran's enriched uranium without a formal deal but saw no reason to do so. This indicated a willingness to act unilaterally, reducing the likelihood of a negotiated acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 29 2026
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand back enriched uranium stocks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 14%2%
Trump announced that Iran had agreed to return its enriched uranium stockpile, suggesting progress in negotiations, but Iran did not confirm, leading to limited market impact and continued skepticism.
May 29 2026
Trump announces Iran agreed to nuclear disarmament and Hormuz reopening
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 16%2%
Trump posted that Iran agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, including joint destruction of buried enriched uranium, but the announcement lacked confirmation, limiting market confidence in uranium enrichment acceptance.
May 29 2026
Trump ends Iran meeting without final deal, reiterates uranium removal plan
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 9%7%
Trump concluded a meeting without announcing a final agreement but emphasized that the US would unearth and destroy Iran's enriched uranium buried at bombed sites, maintaining a hardline stance and limiting chances of US acceptance of enrichment.
May 28 2026
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement including uranium moratorium
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 19%6%
Media reported that the US and Iran were close to a peace deal including a temporary moratorium on uranium enrichment and discussions on sanctions relief and reopening maritime trade. This raised market optimism for some agreement but not definitive acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 28 2026
US-Iran peace deal reportedly includes $300B reconstruction fund
Oil Sanction Relief jumps to 59%14%
Reports of a $300 billion reconstruction fund in a US-Iran peace deal suggested progress on broader negotiations, but did not indicate US acceptance of uranium enrichment, reflecting mixed market signals.
May 27 2026
Trump opposes Iran transferring enriched uranium to Russia or China
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 16%9%
President Trump rejected the possibility of Iran transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia or China, reinforcing US demands for direct control or destruction of the material and limiting diplomatic options.
May 26 2026
Trump outlines options to destroy or take Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 16%3%
Trump detailed plans for Iran's enriched uranium to be either surrendered to the US or destroyed in coordination with Iran, but no definitive agreement was reached, maintaining market uncertainty and downward pressure on enrichment acceptance.
May 26 2026
Trump outlines options for destroying Iran's enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 16%9%
Trump detailed plans for destroying Iran's enriched uranium either after transfer to the US or in place, signaling no acceptance of Iran's continued enrichment and maintaining pressure on uranium issues in negotiations.
May 24 2026
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium after Trump claim
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 19%6%
Iran's foreign ministry denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium to the US, contradicting Trump's claims and reinforcing market doubts about US acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 24 2026
Reports indicate US-Iran deal near on uranium stockpile surrender
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
Reports emerged that Iran had agreed in principle to give up its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace agreement, raising hopes for a deal but lacking Iranian confirmation, causing mixed market reactions.
May 24 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Trump demands Iran abandon nuclear enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
Netanyahu stated that Trump agreed any deal with Iran must include dismantling Iran's nuclear enrichment sites and removing enriched uranium, reinforcing US hardline demands and reducing likelihood of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 23 2026
US officials report Iran's apparent commitment to give up enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
US officials indicated that Iran had made an apparent commitment to relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a proposed agreement, raising some market hopes though uncertainty remained about final terms.
May 23 2026
Iran agrees to give up highly enriched uranium stockpile in deal announced by Trump
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 25%10%
US officials reported that Iran committed to relinquishing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a proposed agreement, a key US demand. This raised market hopes for a deal including uranium disposition, but the commitment was general and not a definitive acceptance of continued enrichment.
May 22 2026
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
President Trump publicly stated that the US would seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, signaling a hardline stance against Iran's nuclear program. This announcement increased market doubts about US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment, contributing to a price drop in the enrichment outcome.
May 21 2026
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
President Trump publicly stated that the US will seize or destroy Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy on Iran's nuclear weapons capability. This hardened stance decreased market expectations for US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment.
May 21 2026
President Trump vows to recover Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
Trump publicly declared that the US will eventually recover Iran's highly enriched uranium, signaling a firm US stance against allowing Iran to retain enriched uranium. This statement contributed to a decline in market optimism for US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump announced plans for US collaboration with Iran and the IAEA to excavate and destroy uranium deposits, indicating a focus on uranium removal rather than acceptance of enrichment. This contributed to market pessimism about US agreement to continued enrichment.
May 21 2026
Trump states US will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
President Trump publicly declared that the US would seize or destroy Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance and reducing market expectations for US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment rights.
May 21 2026
Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA supervision
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 15%23%
Iran's UN mission declared there are no restrictions on uranium enrichment levels under IAEA oversight, contradicting US demands and complicating deal talks. This statement supported market expectations that Iran would continue enrichment, reducing chances of a US agreement to accept enrichment.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"到6月30日，特朗普會同意伊朗的哪些要求？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "石油制裁解除" at 71%, followed by "解凍伊朗資產" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "到6月30日，特朗普會同意伊朗的哪些要求？" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
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The current frontrunner for "到6月30日，特朗普會同意伊朗的哪些要求？" is "石油制裁解除" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "解凍伊朗資產" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 71¢ for "石油制裁解除" in the "到6月30日，特朗普會同意伊朗的哪些要求？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 71% chance that "石油制裁解除" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 71¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 29¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "到6月30日，特朗普會同意伊朗的哪些要求？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
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Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "到6月30日，特朗普會同意伊朗的哪些要求？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions