Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於25-49 69%
<25 30%
100+ 1.1%
50-74 1.1%
$41,572 交易量
$41,572 交易量
2026-06-14
<25
30%
25-49
69%
50-74
1%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 69%
<25 30%
100+ 1.1%
50-74 1.1%
$41,572 交易量
$41,572 交易量
2026-06-14
<25
$11,871 交易量
30%
25-49
$7,264 交易量
69%
50-74
$3,946 交易量
1%
75-99
$3,220 交易量
1%
100+
$15,387 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
交易量
$41,572結束日期
2026-06-14市場開放時間
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$41,572結束日期
2026-06-14市場開放時間
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions