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icon for 美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?

美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?

icon for 美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?

美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?

最新
2026-06-16
Polymarket

$110 交易量

Polymarket

6月15日

$7 交易量

33%

6月22日

$97 交易量

43%

6月30日

$0 交易量

57%

7月31日

$6 交易量

65%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**US and Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire into a longer-term settlement amid the ongoing conflict that began with US-Israel strikes in February.** Recent developments include May reports of negotiators reaching a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding covering Strait of Hormuz reopening, limits on highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and further nuclear talks, though final approvals from President Trump and Iranian leadership remained pending. As of June 11-12, Trump announced a “great settlement” reached in principle, canceled planned strikes, and indicated a possible signing ceremony in Europe within days, while stating the naval blockade continues until documents are finalized. Iran has not confirmed acceptance, and prior rounds of indirect talks via Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar produced temporary halts but no comprehensive accord. Key sticking points include uranium disposal methods, sanctions scope, and verification terms. Trader assessments reflect the balance between these high-level diplomatic signals and persistent uncertainties over implementation timelines and mutual concessions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$110
結束日期
2026-07-31
市場開放時間
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**US and Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire into a longer-term settlement amid the ongoing conflict that began with US-Israel strikes in February.** Recent developments include May reports of negotiators reaching a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding covering Strait of Hormuz reopening, limits on highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and further nuclear talks, though final approvals from President Trump and Iranian leadership remained pending. As of June 11-12, Trump announced a “great settlement” reached in principle, canceled planned strikes, and indicated a possible signing ceremony in Europe within days, while stating the naval blockade continues until documents are finalized. Iran has not confirmed acceptance, and prior rounds of indirect talks via Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar produced temporary halts but no comprehensive accord. Key sticking points include uranium disposal methods, sanctions scope, and verification terms. Trader assessments reflect the balance between these high-level diplomatic signals and persistent uncertainties over implementation timelines and mutual concessions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$110
結束日期
2026-07-31
市場開放時間
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "7月31日" at 65%, followed by "6月30日" at 57%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?" is "7月31日" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 57%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國和伊朗在...之前簽署了一項協議?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.