Ukrainian forces have achieved notable gains in the Lyman sector through Operation Vivaldi, recapturing settlements including Nove, Ridkodub, and Katerynivka while reclaiming 51 square kilometers in the latest phase and over 176 square kilometers overall since the operation began. The Third Army Corps reported inflicting around 2,000 Russian casualties and capturing more than 250 prisoners, using drone-enabled tactics to disrupt Russian command and logistics. These developments have reversed prior Russian pressure north of the city and stabilized Ukrainian defensive lines in northern Donetsk Oblast. Trader consensus on Russian capture of Lyman by late 2026 reflects this shift, as sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives and seasonal factors now shape assessments of frontline momentum through year-end.