Ukrainian forces hold Lyman in Donetsk Oblast against sustained Russian pressure in the Lyman direction, where fighting remains a key frontline in the ongoing invasion. Russia's spring 2026 offensive, launched late March with mechanized assaults from the 1st Guards Tank Army, yielded marginal advances south of Lyman in early May, but Ukrainian drone strikes—including eliminations of Russian infantry on May 9—have inflicted heavy attrition. A brief May 9-11 ceasefire enabled Russian regrouping and fortification northwest of the town, previously limited by drone activity. Traders assess slow Russian progress against Ukraine's fortified defenses, watching for post-ceasefire escalations or manpower shifts that could alter the stalemate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkrainian military sources report Russian forces using ceasefire for regrouping and fortification near Lyman, with no operationally significant Russian gains, reinforcing market
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian military sources report Russian forces using ceasefire for regrouping and fortification near Lyman, with no operationally significant Russian gains, reinforcing market pessimism about capture by June 30
ISW reports Russian 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s claim of seizing Kryva Luka (east of Slovyansk) but no change around Lyman itself;
June 30 drops to 10%6%
traders interpret this as a lack of progress and
No new ISW or Ukrainian confirmation of Russian control;
June 30 dips to 9%2%
market hits a low of 9 % as the June deadline approaches without any credible capture evidence
ISW assessment reported an unsuccessful reinforced company‑size assault near Shandryholove (north‑west of Lyman), indicating Russian momentum had stalled and pushing the market
December 31 drops to 54%13%
ISW assessment reported an unsuccessful reinforced company‑size assault near Shandryholove (north‑west of Lyman), indicating Russian momentum had stalled and pushing the market lower
Russian MoD claimed the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade seized Kryva Luka (east of Slovyansk), a step toward Lyman, but ISW noted no corroborating evidence;
June 30 dips to 13%3%
the mixed signal caused a small rebound
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes near the Lyman‑Siversk highway, indicating Ukrainian counter‑offensives;
June 30 drops to 16%7%
market reacts with a decline to 16 %
Ukrainian forces claimed tactical advances near Prymorske and reported Russian units “advancing deep into the gray zone” south of Lyman, but without clear control of the station,
December 31 rises to 67%2%
Ukrainian forces claimed tactical advances near Prymorske and reported Russian units “advancing deep into the gray zone” south of Lyman, but without clear control of the station, leading to a modest
Pravda Germany notes Russian units using forested areas for deep infiltration south of Lyman but highlights “gaps in reconnaissance” and no decisive breakthrough, tempering
December 31 drops to 48%10%
Pravda Germany notes Russian units using forested areas for deep infiltration south of Lyman but highlights “gaps in reconnaissance” and no decisive breakthrough, tempering bullish sentiment and contributing to the
Pravda France article describes Russian units only making “deep infiltration” south of Lyman and no firm territorial gains, underscoring that the station remains out of Russian
May 31 dips to 4%3%
Pravda France article describes Russian units only making “deep infiltration” south of Lyman and no firm territorial gains, underscoring that the station remains out of Russian hands
Pravda UK frontline report notes only a “small section on the eastern flank of Dovha Balka” captured, with no mention of Lyman rail‑station gains, underscoring the stalled Russian
May 31 rises to 3%1%
Pravda UK frontline report notes only a “small section on the eastern flank of Dovha Balka” captured, with no mention of Lyman rail‑station gains, underscoring the stalled Russian advance
Brief Frontline Report (Pravda EU) highlighted that Russian advances in the sector remained limited to “few settlements per day” and emphasized that territorial capture was not
May 31 dips to 2%2%
Brief Frontline Report (Pravda EU) highlighted that Russian advances in the sector remained limited to “few settlements per day” and emphasized that territorial capture was not the main goal, underscoring the lack of progress on Lyman
ISW assessment states Russian forces continued operations in the Slovyansk direction but made no confirmed advances – The repeated “no‑gain” updates reinforced the view that Lyman
June 30 drops to 16%10%
ISW assessment states Russian forces continued operations in the Slovyansk direction but made no confirmed advances – The repeated “no‑gain” updates reinforced the view that Lyman would not fall by June 30.
Pravda‑Germany report of Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka and “further territorial gains south of Lyman” – Although the article hinted at progress, analysts
June 30 plunges to 26%25%
Pravda‑Germany report of Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka and “further territorial gains south of Lyman” – Although the article hinted at progress, analysts judged the information unverified, prompting a rapid
Pravda Germany reported geolocated footage of Russian units only on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka (south of Lyman) and mentioned “further territorial gains south of Lyman”
May 31 dips to 5%2%
Pravda Germany reported geolocated footage of Russian units only on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka (south of Lyman) and mentioned “further territorial gains south of Lyman” but no capture of the rail station, tempering the decline and nudging the
Pravda Germany reported Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka and “further territorial gains south of Lyman,” briefly reviving hopes of a June capture and causing a
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Pravda Germany reported Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka and “further territorial gains south of Lyman,” briefly reviving hopes of a June capture and causing a modest
Pravda Germany article mentions “further territorial gains south of Lyman” but offers no concrete evidence of station capture – While the piece noted Russian units approaching
May 31 dips to 4%1%
Pravda Germany article mentions “further territorial gains south of Lyman” but offers no concrete evidence of station capture – While the piece noted Russian units approaching nearby villages, it did not confirm control of the Lyman rail hub, leaving market sentiment unchanged and the
Pravda Germany article confirms Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka and “further territorial gains south of Lyman,” but ISW still shows no red shading on the Lyman
June 30 drops to 11%5%
Pravda Germany article confirms Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka and “further territorial gains south of Lyman,” but ISW still shows no red shading on the Lyman station, prompting traders to cut odds
Latest market snapshot shows the(no new event;
June 30 dips to 16%2%
reflects continuation of prior trend).
Pravda Germany reported Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka south of Lyman, but again provided no evidence of the rail‑station being captured, further eroding
May 31 dips to 4%3%
Pravda Germany reported Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka south of Lyman, but again provided no evidence of the rail‑station being captured, further eroding confidence in a “Yes” outcome
Reuters‑style coverage of Russia abandoning its “meat‑grinder” tactic after heavy losses around Lyman and other fronts – Analysis that Russia was scaling back large‑scale assaults
May 31 dips to 3%2%
Reuters‑style coverage of Russia abandoning its “meat‑grinder” tactic after heavy losses around Lyman and other fronts – Analysis that Russia was scaling back large‑scale assaults in the Lyman sector further eroded confidence in a near‑term capture, causing the final dip to the 3 % trough.
ISW notes a net loss of 116 sq km of Russian‑held territory in April 2026 – the first such loss since 2024 – and records Ukrainian advances near Lyman, undermining expectations of
May 31 drops to 6%6%
ISW notes a net loss of 116 sq km of Russian‑held territory in April 2026 – the first such loss since 2024 – and records Ukrainian advances near Lyman, undermining expectations of a Russian capture
ISW’s May 1 assessment noted continued Ukrainian mid‑range strikes and infiltration missions in the Lyman area and confirmed Russian forces were still “continuing offensive
May 31 dips to 7%4%
ISW’s May 1 assessment noted continued Ukrainian mid‑range strikes and infiltration missions in the Lyman area and confirmed Russian forces were still “continuing offensive operations” without securing the station
ISW assessment noted a reduction in Russian Molniya drone strikes and a shift to larger infantry groups with higher personnel losses, suggesting a weakening of the offensive aimed
ISW assessment noted a reduction in Russian Molniya drone strikes and a shift to larger infantry groups with higher personnel losses, suggesting a weakening of the offensive aimed at Lyman
ISW’s May 1 assessment reports Ukrainian mid‑range strikes and continued Russian infiltration missions in the Lyman direction, with no indication that the railway station has been
May 31 dips to 7%4%
ISW’s May 1 assessment reports Ukrainian mid‑range strikes and continued Russian infiltration missions in the Lyman direction, with no indication that the railway station has been taken
Ukrainian mid‑range strike campaign hits Russian positions in the Lyman direction, with geolocated footage showing strikes in central Yampil and continued Russian infiltration
May 31 dips to 5%3%
Ukrainian mid‑range strike campaign hits Russian positions in the Lyman direction, with geolocated footage showing strikes in central Yampil and continued Russian infiltration attempts – Fresh Ukrainian attacks demonstrated that Russian forces were on the defensive, prompting the market to slide to its lowest level of the period.
Pravda Ukraine morning summary describes heavy fighting in the Dobropillia direction and “intense clashes” near Lyman, but no indication of Russian control, leading traders to cut
June 30 dips to 18%4%
Pravda Ukraine morning summary describes heavy fighting in the Dobropillia direction and “intense clashes” near Lyman, but no indication of Russian control, leading traders to cut the June‑30 probability
ISW assessment said Russian forces were conducting “infiltration missions” in the Lyman direction but were “unable to penetrate dense frontline air defenses,” indicating a
June 30 drops to 18%5%
ISW assessment said Russian forces were conducting “infiltration missions” in the Lyman direction but were “unable to penetrate dense frontline air defenses,” indicating a slowdown in offensive momentum and pushing the June 30 odds lower
ISW report confirms ongoing fighting and no capture of Lyman station – The May 1 assessment highlighted “Russian forces … are continuing offensive operations in the Lyman …
May 31 drops to 5%6%
ISW report confirms ongoing fighting and no capture of Lyman station – The May 1 assessment highlighted “Russian forces … are continuing offensive operations in the Lyman … direction” and again provided no evidence of the station being taken, pushing the
ISW’s May 1 assessment noted continued Ukrainian mid‑range strikes and infiltration missions in the Lyman area and confirmed Russian forces were still “conducting offensive
May 31 dips to 7%4%
ISW’s May 1 assessment noted continued Ukrainian mid‑range strikes and infiltration missions in the Lyman area and confirmed Russian forces were still “conducting offensive operations” without any mention of taking the Lyman rail station
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in Yampil (northeast of Slovyansk) after a Russian infiltration mission, suggesting Russian troops are moving
December 31 plunges to 63%22%
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in Yampil (northeast of Slovyansk) after a Russian infiltration mission, suggesting Russian troops are moving deeper toward Lyman
ISW’s April 30 assessment notes Ukrainian forces advancing south of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman) and a Russian mil‑blogger’s unverified claim of seizing Zakitne, highlighting
May 31 drops to 8%5%
ISW’s April 30 assessment notes Ukrainian forces advancing south of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman) and a Russian mil‑blogger’s unverified claim of seizing Zakitne, highlighting continued fighting and no clear Russian gain – The report of Ukrainian advances near Lyman reinforced doubts about a Russian capture, pushing the
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in Yampil (northeast of Slovyansk) after a Russian infiltration mission, indicating Ukrainian
June 30 dips to 16%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in Yampil (northeast of Slovyansk) after a Russian infiltration mission, indicating Ukrainian counter‑offensive pressure near Lyman
Report of a repeat auction for Moscow’s Rizhsky railway station underscores Russian railway‑sector financial strain, indirectly weakening Russia’s ability to sustain offensive
June 30 drops to 16%6%
Report of a repeat auction for Moscow’s Rizhsky railway station underscores Russian railway‑sector financial strain, indirectly weakening Russia’s ability to sustain offensive logistics in Lyman
Russian Railways put Moscow’s Rizhsky Station up for sale again, reflecting broader logistical and financial strains on Russian infrastructure, indirectly signaling challenges in
April 30 dips to 0%2%
Russian Railways put Moscow’s Rizhsky Station up for sale again, reflecting broader logistical and financial strains on Russian infrastructure, indirectly signaling challenges in sustaining offensives like at Lyman
ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated Russian forces were conducting operations in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction but gave no indication of a capture of the Lyman rail
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated Russian forces were conducting operations in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction but gave no indication of a capture of the Lyman rail hub
ISW notes fresh Russian offensive activity but no territorial gain in Lyman direction – The April 22 campaign assessment recorded “Russian forces conducted offensive operations
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW notes fresh Russian offensive activity but no territorial gain in Lyman direction – The April 22 campaign assessment recorded “Russian forces conducted offensive operations and Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction” but gave no indication of a capture, reinforcing doubts and nudging the
ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated Russian troops were conducting operations in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction but gave no indication of a Lyman capture,
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated Russian troops were conducting operations in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction but gave no indication of a Lyman capture, reinforcing doubts about the April 21 claim
ISW’s April 22 assessment notes continued Russian offensive operations in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction but provides no confirmation of Lyman‑station capture, contradicting
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW’s April 22 assessment notes continued Russian offensive operations in the Slovyansk‑Lyman direction but provides no confirmation of Lyman‑station capture, contradicting earlier Russian statements
ISW refutes Gerasimov’s claim that Russia seized 70 % of Lyman, stating no evidence of any Lyman capture – The stark discrepancy between Russian propaganda and ISW’s on‑the‑ground
June 30 drops to 51%9%
ISW refutes Gerasimov’s claim that Russia seized 70 % of Lyman, stating no evidence of any Lyman capture – The stark discrepancy between Russian propaganda and ISW’s on‑the‑ground view triggered a sharper decline.
Gerasimov claims 70 % of Lyman seized;
June 30 plunges to 28%24%
ISW finds no evidence of any capture, only increased small‑group activity
ISW refutes Gerasimov’s claim of 70 % control of Lyman, stating no evidence of any capture, while Ukrainian sources report increased Russian small‑group activity but no
June 30 dips to 21%1%
ISW refutes Gerasimov’s claim of 70 % control of Lyman, stating no evidence of any capture, while Ukrainian sources report increased Russian small‑group activity but no territorial gain
ISW assessment rejects Russian claim of seizing Lyman, noting no evidence of control – The Institute for the Study of War reported that, despite Russian statements that 70 % of
May 31 drops to 12%13%
ISW assessment rejects Russian claim of seizing Lyman, noting no evidence of control – The Institute for the Study of War reported that, despite Russian statements that 70 % of Lyman was captured, “ISW has not observed evidence to indicate that Russian forces have seized any of Lyman”. The denial of any Russian foothold caused the first steep drop in the “Yes”
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced that Russian forces had entered Studenok (north‑west of Lyman) and Staryi Karavan (north‑east of Slovyansk), suggesting a
May 31 drops to 18%7%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced that Russian forces had entered Studenok (north‑west of Lyman) and Staryi Karavan (north‑east of Slovyansk), suggesting a new thrust toward the Lyman rail hub
Russian spokesperson Gerasimov claimed “70 % of Lyman” was seized, yet ISW explicitly stated it had no evidence of any Russian control of Lyman, prompting a sharp sell‑off on the
June 30 plunges to 22%30%
Russian spokesperson Gerasimov claimed “70 % of Lyman” was seized, yet ISW explicitly stated it had no evidence of any Russian control of Lyman, prompting a sharp sell‑off on the June 30 outcome
ISW refuted Russian claims of having seized 70 % of Lyman, stating no evidence of capture;
June 30 plunges to 54%15%
the denial caused a sharp fall in the “June 30” probability
Russian General Gerasimov claimed partial seizure of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over the train station;
Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions
Ukrainian military reported repelling multiple Russian attacks near Lyman;
Russian drone strikes intensified but failed to secure ground control
Ukrainian partisan sabotage of railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics feeding the Lyman front, further dampening prospects of a rapid Russian
May 31 dips to 5%3%
Ukrainian partisan sabotage of railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics feeding the Lyman front, further dampening prospects of a rapid Russian capture
Pravda Germany article confirmed Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka (south of Lyman) and further territorial gains south of Lyman, yet the overall front remained
June 30 drops to 19%9%
Pravda Germany article confirmed Russian units on the outskirts of Rai Oleksandrivka (south of Lyman) and further territorial gains south of Lyman, yet the overall front remained static, causing a slight rebound
ISW assessment notes Russian attacks near Lyman continue but no advance;
June 30 rises to 20%1%
traders interpret as stagnation (derived from
Ukrainian GUR deputy says Russia may add 20,000 troops to its Donbas force;
June 30 drops to 19%9%
ISW still shows no Lyman gains, prompting further
Russian Railways announced the sale of Moscow’s Rizhsky Station, underscoring broader logistical strains on Russian rail operations and dampening expectations of a successful
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Russian Railways announced the sale of Moscow’s Rizhsky Station, underscoring broader logistical strains on Russian rail operations and dampening expectations of a successful Lyman capture
Atesh sabotage destroys a Russian locomotive in Rostov, highlighting Russian locomotive shortage;
June 30 dips to 52%4%
ISW notes continued Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial gain
ISW reported ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman but no advances into the town;
Ukrainian partisan sabotage disrupted Russian railway logistics, weakening Russian offensive capability
ISW reported fresh Russian attacks near Lyman (north of the town and northeast at Zarichne) but again “did not make confirmed advances,” reinforcing doubts about a near‑term
June 30 plunges to 40%19%
ISW reported fresh Russian attacks near Lyman (north of the town and northeast at Zarichne) but again “did not make confirmed advances,” reinforcing doubts about a near‑term capture
ISW noted continued Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial gains, while a sabotage operation elsewhere highlighted Russian logistical strain, leading traders to downgrade
December 31 plunges to 66%15%
ISW noted continued Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial gains, while a sabotage operation elsewhere highlighted Russian logistical strain, leading traders to downgrade capture odds
A Ukrainian partisan group reported destroying a Russian locomotive supplying the front, highlighting logistical strain on Russian rail operations near Lyman;
June 30 dips to 69%3%
traders interpreted this as a setback for Russian capture plans
ISW assessment (April 12) records continued Russian attacks around Lyman with no confirmed capture;
June 30 plunges to 25%28%
Ukrainian partisan sabotage of a Russian locomotive highlights logistical strain, leading to a sharp drop to 25 %
Ukrainian frontline summary reports intensified artillery fire on settlements south of Lyman (Tatyanovka, Pryshyb), indicating Ukrainian pressure and reducing expectations of a
December 31 drops to 66%11%
Ukrainian frontline summary reports intensified artillery fire on settlements south of Lyman (Tatyanovka, Pryshyb), indicating Ukrainian pressure and reducing expectations of a Russian capture
Milblogger claims Russian forces target railway crossings on the Sosnove‑Svyatohirsk line northwest of Lyman;
June 30 drops to 56%9%
ISW still sees no confirmed capture
ISW reports intensified Ukrainian counter‑attacks forcing Russian units to redeploy away from the Lyman sector, indicating Russian forces were on the defensive rather than
May 31 dips to 8%4%
ISW reports intensified Ukrainian counter‑attacks forcing Russian units to redeploy away from the Lyman sector, indicating Russian forces were on the defensive rather than advancing toward the rail station
Russia advanced near Lyman and surrounding villages but ISW data showed no evidence of Russian control over Lyman train station;
April 30 dips to 14%3%
Ukrainian forces held key positions
Reports emerge of Russian forces failing to capitalize on territorial gains in nearby towns and Ukrainian forces making significant counteroffensive progress, reducing confidence
June 30 plunges to 54%19%
Reports emerge of Russian forces failing to capitalize on territorial gains in nearby towns and Ukrainian forces making significant counteroffensive progress, reducing confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by mid-year
ISW noted an unsuccessful reinforced company‑size assault near Shandryholove (NW of Lyman) as part of Russia’s spring‑summer offensive, signalling a stalled advance and triggering
June 30 dips to 72%3%
ISW noted an unsuccessful reinforced company‑size assault near Shandryholove (NW of Lyman) as part of Russia’s spring‑summer offensive, signalling a stalled advance and triggering a
ISW reported Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not capture the town or railroad station;
April 30 drops to 38%14%
Ukrainian counterattacks limited Russian gains
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman (Novoselivka, Stavky, Drobysheve) without territorial gain;
June 30 jumps to 75%11%
the continued fighting kept the “June 30” odds high
ISW reports fresh Russian attacks near Lyman (Novoselivka, Stavky, Drobysheve) but no advance;
June 30 dips to 65%1%
Ukrainian officials warn of intensified railway strikes
ISW assessment reports Russian attacks “near Lyman” but no territorial gain;
June 30 jumps to 75%12%
analysts cite intensified railway strikes rather than capture
ISW assessment noted that Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman but did not advance, while Ukrainian officials highlighted a surge in railway strikes elsewhere, tempering
June 30 drops to 69%7%
ISW assessment noted that Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman but did not advance, while Ukrainian officials highlighted a surge in railway strikes elsewhere, tempering optimism
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman and Pokrovsk but do not advance, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian logistics and railway infrastructure, signaling ongoing
June 30 jumps to 73%6%
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman and Pokrovsk but do not advance, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian logistics and railway infrastructure, signaling ongoing contested control
ISW reports Russian forces again attacking north‑west of Lyman (Novoselivka, Stavky) and intensifying railway strikes across Ukraine, reinforcing the view that Lyman’s rail hub is
December 31 dips to 85%2%
ISW reports Russian forces again attacking north‑west of Lyman (Novoselivka, Stavky) and intensifying railway strikes across Ukraine, reinforcing the view that Lyman’s rail hub is a target
ISW reports Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial gain;
June 30 rises to 66%2%
Ukrainian officials warn of intensified railway strikes, underscoring the difficulty of taking the station and nudging
ISW noted that Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman but made no territorial advance;
December 31 drops to 88%5%
analysts highlighted a shift to small‑infantry tactics rather than a breakthrough
ISW assessment reports Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial gain – The independent analysis contradicted Moscow’s claim, tempering the rally but keeping the market
June 30 dips to 66%1%
ISW assessment reports Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial gain – The independent analysis contradicted Moscow’s claim, tempering the rally but keeping the market bullish.
ISW noted that despite the March 3‑4 attacks, Russian troops “did not advance” and failed to capture any part of Lyman, tempering optimism but keeping the market bullish on a June
June 30 dips to 63%3%
ISW noted that despite the March 3‑4 attacks, Russian troops “did not advance” and failed to capture any part of Lyman, tempering optimism but keeping the market bullish on a June 30 capture
Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman (northwest of Novoselivka, north of Drobysheve, northeast of Dronivka) but made no territorial advance, leading the market to plateau
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman (northwest of Novoselivka, north of Drobysheve, northeast of Dronivka) but made no territorial advance, leading the market to plateau at high levels
Russian forces launched a multi‑direction offensive north‑east of Lyman, striking near Novoselivka, Stavky and Drobysheve, marking the first confirmed push toward the town’s
June 30 surges to 67%17%
Russian forces launched a multi‑direction offensive north‑east of Lyman, striking near Novoselivka, Stavky and Drobysheve, marking the first confirmed push toward the town’s railway hub
Russian MoD claims seizure of Drobysheve and Riznykivka near Lyman – The ministry’s announcement of new footholds sparked optimism that the Lyman rail hub was about to fall,
June 30 surges to 67%17%
Russian MoD claims seizure of Drobysheve and Riznykivka near Lyman – The ministry’s announcement of new footholds sparked optimism that the Lyman rail hub was about to fall, lifting the “June 30” odds.
Russia’s MoD claims seizure of Drobysheve (north‑west of Lyman) and Riznykivka;
June 30 dips to 66%1%
ISW notes only limited infiltration, no control change
Critical Threats analysis records unconfirmed Russian claims of advances near Lyman and surrounding villages, but no confirmed gains, leading traders to temper optimism after the
December 31 drops to 85%8%
Critical Threats analysis records unconfirmed Russian claims of advances near Lyman and surrounding villages, but no confirmed gains, leading traders to temper optimism after the Feb 21 peak
ISW noted a large combined strike package that added water and railway targets, including attacks north of Lyman near Stavky and Drobysheve, signalling a shift to direct rail‑line
December 31 dips to 85%1%
ISW noted a large combined strike package that added water and railway targets, including attacks north of Lyman near Stavky and Drobysheve, signalling a shift to direct rail‑line pressure
Ukrainian Joint Forces spokesperson reports Russian units of the 20th Combined Arms Army attempting to break through north‑west of Lyman and infiltrate via Drobysheve, signalling
June 30 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian Joint Forces spokesperson reports Russian units of the 20th Combined Arms Army attempting to break through north‑west of Lyman and infiltrate via Drobysheve, signalling a possible envelopment of the city
Ukrainian Joint Forces reported that Russian forces were trying to bypass Lyman via Drobysheve and Stavky to seize Raihorodok, but had not yet made significant gains, tempering
December 31 dips to 86%1%
Ukrainian Joint Forces reported that Russian forces were trying to bypass Lyman via Drobysheve and Stavky to seize Raihorodok, but had not yet made significant gains, tempering the earlier surge
Russia launched a large combined strike package targeting Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure, including attacks north of Lyman, raising fears of a rapid capture of the
December 31 jumps to 86%6%
Russia launched a large combined strike package targeting Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure, including attacks north of Lyman, raising fears of a rapid capture of the rail station
ISW assessment notes a large combined strike package targeting railway infrastructure near Lyman and Russian 20th CAA attempting to cut off the town, fueling speculation of an
December 31 jumps to 93%13%
ISW assessment notes a large combined strike package targeting railway infrastructure near Lyman and Russian 20th CAA attempting to cut off the town, fueling speculation of an imminent capture
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions