Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive, launched around March 2026 and continuing into November, has reversed Russian momentum north and northeast of Lyman. Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 277 square kilometers and 16 settlements, collapsing the northern pincer intended to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defensive belt and forcing Russian units to redeploy resources. Russian forces persist with limited offensive probes east and northeast of the city but report no confirmed advances in early November assessments, while Ukrainian counterattacks continue to disrupt attempts to seize the railroad station or consolidate positions. These battlefield shifts underpin the low implied probability traders assign to Russian capture by the end of 2026.