Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 9.5% ("No" at 90.5%), reflecting the recent three-day ceasefire from May 9-11—mediated by U.S. President Trump for Russia's Victory Day parade and a prisoner exchange—which saw continued limited offensive actions and no breakthrough toward formal negotiations. The Kremlin stated on May 9 that comprehensive peace remains "a very long way off," amid European skepticism of Vladimir Putin's proposal for former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as mediator. Ongoing territorial disputes, mutual demands for security guarantees, and reports of persistent frontline clashes underscore significant barriers, with no scheduled talks before the deadline despite U.S. diplomatic pushes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$381,109 Vol.
$381,109 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$381,109 Vol.
$381,109 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 9.5% ("No" at 90.5%), reflecting the recent three-day ceasefire from May 9-11—mediated by U.S. President Trump for Russia's Victory Day parade and a prisoner exchange—which saw continued limited offensive actions and no breakthrough toward formal negotiations. The Kremlin stated on May 9 that comprehensive peace remains "a very long way off," amid European skepticism of Vladimir Putin's proposal for former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as mediator. Ongoing territorial disputes, mutual demands for security guarantees, and reports of persistent frontline clashes underscore significant barriers, with no scheduled talks before the deadline despite U.S. diplomatic pushes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$381,109End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 9.5% ("No" at 90.5%), reflecting the recent three-day ceasefire from May 9-11—mediated by U.S. President Trump for Russia's Victory Day parade and a prisoner exchange—which saw continued limited offensive actions and no breakthrough toward formal negotiations. The Kremlin stated on May 9 that comprehensive peace remains "a very long way off," amid European skepticism of Vladimir Putin's proposal for former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as mediator. Ongoing territorial disputes, mutual demands for security guarantees, and reports of persistent frontline clashes underscore significant barriers, with no scheduled talks before the deadline despite U.S. diplomatic pushes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$381,109End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 9.5% ("No" at 90.5%), reflecting the recent three-day ceasefire from May 9-11—mediated by U.S. President Trump for Russia's Victory Day parade and a prisoner exchange—which saw continued limited offensive actions and no breakthrough toward formal negotiations. The Kremlin stated on May 9 that comprehensive peace remains "a very long way off," amid European skepticism of Vladimir Putin's proposal for former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as mediator. Ongoing territorial disputes, mutual demands for security guarantees, and reports of persistent frontline clashes underscore significant barriers, with no scheduled talks before the deadline despite U.S. diplomatic pushes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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