Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including an interim agreement to halt active hostilities, has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany before the June 30 deadline. European leaders have focused on defensive measures such as drone interceptions and sanctions relief tied to verifiable nuclear steps, while urging negotiations rather than offensive operations. With only days remaining and no reported preparations for independent strikes on Iranian territory, the market reflects the low likelihood of sudden escalation. A rapid breakdown in the emerging deal or a major new Iranian provocation could still shift the outcome in the narrow window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSusugatan ba ng France, UK, o Germany ang Iran sa Hunyo 30?
Oo
$3,473,975 Vol.
$3,473,975 Vol.
Oo
$3,473,975 Vol.
$3,473,975 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including an interim agreement to halt active hostilities, has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany before the June 30 deadline. European leaders have focused on defensive measures such as drone interceptions and sanctions relief tied to verifiable nuclear steps, while urging negotiations rather than offensive operations. With only days remaining and no reported preparations for independent strikes on Iranian territory, the market reflects the low likelihood of sudden escalation. A rapid breakdown in the emerging deal or a major new Iranian provocation could still shift the outcome in the narrow window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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