Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability of "No" as France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomacy amid the US-led naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliatory strikes, including attacks on UAE infrastructure on May 4. Leaders Macron, Starmer, and Merz issued joint statements condemning Iran's missile barrages while affirming readiness for proportionate defensive actions to neutralize drone and missile threats at their source, but explicitly avoiding offensive strikes on Iranian soil. France's recent deployment of the nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle signals deterrence rather than aggression, with European focus on de-escalation talks and securing shipping lanes. Direct Iranian attacks on European bases could shift dynamics, though no such escalation has materialized by mid-May.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSusugatan ba ng France, UK, o Germany ang Iran sa Hunyo 30?
Susugatan ba ng France, UK, o Germany ang Iran sa Hunyo 30?
Oo
$1,291,247 Vol.
$1,291,247 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oo
$1,291,247 Vol.
$1,291,247 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability of "No" as France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomacy amid the US-led naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliatory strikes, including attacks on UAE infrastructure on May 4. Leaders Macron, Starmer, and Merz issued joint statements condemning Iran's missile barrages while affirming readiness for proportionate defensive actions to neutralize drone and missile threats at their source, but explicitly avoiding offensive strikes on Iranian soil. France's recent deployment of the nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle signals deterrence rather than aggression, with European focus on de-escalation talks and securing shipping lanes. Direct Iranian attacks on European bases could shift dynamics, though no such escalation has materialized by mid-May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Volume
$1,291,247Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability of "No" as France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomacy amid the US-led naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliatory strikes, including attacks on UAE infrastructure on May 4. Leaders Macron, Starmer, and Merz issued joint statements condemning Iran's missile barrages while affirming readiness for proportionate defensive actions to neutralize drone and missile threats at their source, but explicitly avoiding offensive strikes on Iranian soil. France's recent deployment of the nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle signals deterrence rather than aggression, with European focus on de-escalation talks and securing shipping lanes. Direct Iranian attacks on European bases could shift dynamics, though no such escalation has materialized by mid-May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,291,247Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 95% implied probability of "No" as France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomacy amid the US-led naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliatory strikes, including attacks on UAE infrastructure on May 4. Leaders Macron, Starmer, and Merz issued joint statements condemning Iran's missile barrages while affirming readiness for proportionate defensive actions to neutralize drone and missile threats at their source, but explicitly avoiding offensive strikes on Iranian soil. France's recent deployment of the nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle signals deterrence rather than aggression, with European focus on de-escalation talks and securing shipping lanes. Direct Iranian attacks on European bases could shift dynamics, though no such escalation has materialized by mid-May.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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