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Politika·Iran

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

icon for Who will enter Iran by June 30?
Politika·Iran

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

$387,411 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$387,411 Vol.

Polymarket

Any U.S. House member

$86,747 Vol.

5%

Any U.S. Senator

$29,990 Vol.

3%

Jared Kushner

$15,604 Vol.

2%

Marco Rubio

$21,470 Vol.

2%

Pete Hegseth

$92,649 Vol.

2%

JD Vance

$30,931 Vol.

1%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$42,282 Vol.

1%

Donald Trump

$67,738 Vol.

<1%

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a slim 5% chance for any active U.S. House member to physically enter Iranian territory by June 30, with other outcomes like U.S. senators, Trump nominees such as Pete Hegseth or Marco Rubio, or Benjamin Netanyahu below 3%, reflecting entrenched hostilities from the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Airstrikes continue alongside a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while a fragile ceasefire faces violations including recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Iran's deployment of 10,000 FPV drones for potential ground defense. Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed IDF readiness for further U.S.-coordinated action short of entry, amid unconfirmed reports of Israel urging a U.S. special forces raid on uranium stockpiles. Stalled diplomatic talks and Trump administration pressures heighten barriers, though a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or U.S.-China discussions could alter odds.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$387,411
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a slim 5% chance for any active U.S. House member to physically enter Iranian territory by June 30, with other outcomes like U.S. senators, Trump nominees such as Pete Hegseth or Marco Rubio, or Benjamin Netanyahu below 3%, reflecting entrenched hostilities from the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Airstrikes continue alongside a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while a fragile ceasefire faces violations including recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Iran's deployment of 10,000 FPV drones for potential ground defense. Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed IDF readiness for further U.S.-coordinated action short of entry, amid unconfirmed reports of Israel urging a U.S. special forces raid on uranium stockpiles. Stalled diplomatic talks and Trump administration pressures heighten barriers, though a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or U.S.-China discussions could alter odds.

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$387,411
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Who will enter Iran by June 30?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 8 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Any U.S. House member" sa 5%, sinusundan ng "Any U.S. Senator" sa 3%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 5¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 5% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Who will enter Iran by June 30?" ay naka-generate ng $387.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Mar 1, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Who will enter Iran by June 30?," i-browse ang 8 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Isa itong wide-open market. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna para sa "Who will enter Iran by June 30?" ay "Any U.S. House member" sa 5% lang, na may "Any U.S. Senator" na malapit sa likod sa 3%. Walang outcome na may malakas na mayorya, kaya nakikita ito ng mga trader bilang highly uncertain, na maaaring magbigay ng mga kakaibang trading opportunity. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time, kaya i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para panoorin kung paano nag-e-evolve ang probabilities.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Who will enter Iran by June 30?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.