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Politics·Tariffs

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

icon for Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Politics·Tariffs

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$395,614 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$395,614 Vol.

Polymarket

Vietnam

$9,485 Vol.

19%

Mexico

$3,171 Vol.

19%

Indonesia

$19,621 Vol.

15%

Israel

$572 Vol.

14%

South Korea

$60,555 Vol.

14%

Taiwan

$34,264 Vol.

12%

Canada

$22,824 Vol.

12%

United Kingdom

$592 Vol.

12%

South Africa

$559 Vol.

11%

India

$70,851 Vol.

11%

Australia

$6,287 Vol.

10%

Pakistan

$105,703 Vol.

9%

Russia

$2,348 Vol.

9%

Argentina

$22,819 Vol.

8%

Brazil

$4,819 Vol.

7%

European Union

$13,365 Vol.

7%

Japan

$17,780 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration’s America First trade agenda, centered on reciprocal tariff adjustments and Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs), has driven a series of bilateral frameworks and signed deals since 2025. These arrangements typically reduce or eliminate tariffs on U.S. exports in exchange for partner concessions on market access, non-tariff barriers, forced-labor rules, supply-chain alignment, and critical minerals cooperation. As of September 2026, finalized or advanced ARTs and frameworks cover Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, North Macedonia, Taiwan, Uzbekistan, the European Union, and others, alongside purchase commitments and institutional mechanisms with China. Ongoing talks involve India, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, and additional partners, supported by Section 122 tariffs and enforcement actions following the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling on prior authorities. Key upcoming catalysts include the USMCA joint review process, G20 trade meetings, and continued bilateral negotiations through 2026 that could expand the list of completed deals before the 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$395,614
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration’s America First trade agenda, centered on reciprocal tariff adjustments and Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs), has driven a series of bilateral frameworks and signed deals since 2025. These arrangements typically reduce or eliminate tariffs on U.S. exports in exchange for partner concessions on market access, non-tariff barriers, forced-labor rules, supply-chain alignment, and critical minerals cooperation. As of September 2026, finalized or advanced ARTs and frameworks cover Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, North Macedonia, Taiwan, Uzbekistan, the European Union, and others, alongside purchase commitments and institutional mechanisms with China. Ongoing talks involve India, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, and additional partners, supported by Section 122 tariffs and enforcement actions following the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling on prior authorities. Key upcoming catalysts include the USMCA joint review process, G20 trade meetings, and continued bilateral negotiations through 2026 that could expand the list of completed deals before the 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$395,614
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Vietnam" at 19%, followed by "Mexico" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $395.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "Vietnam" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mexico" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.